Category: Russia

Source: IMF – News in Russian

July 1, 2025

Washington, DC: At the request of the Kenyan authorities, an IMF Technical Assistance mission led by Rebecca A. Sparkman visited Kenya from June 16-30, 2025, to conduct a Governance Diagnostic. This mission followed the scoping mission held on March 3-5, 2025.

The Governance Diagnostic aims to identify macro-economically critical governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities, and design an action plan with specific, sequenced recommendations and reform priorities.

Reflecting the breadth of the Governance Diagnostic exercise, the visiting team comprised staff from a number of IMF departments, including the Fiscal Affairs; Legal; Finance; Monetary and Capital Markets; and Strategy, Policy and Review Departments, as well as World Bank staff. They engaged with the government and non-governmental stakeholders to examine governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities across core state functions as provided by the IMF’s 2018 framework for Enhanced Engagement on Governance.

To this end, the mission team met with Kenyan authorities, including those responsible for public financial management (including procurement), expenditure policy, tax policy, revenue administration, the mining sector, market regulation, rule of law, Central Bank governance and operations, financial sector oversight, and Anti-Money Laundering/Combatting the Financing of Terrorism. Throughout the mission, the team engaged with Kenya’s anti-corruption and oversight institutions to discuss the effectiveness of legal and institutional frameworks in reducing macro-economically critical corruption vulnerabilities. The mission also met members of Kenya’s National Assembly.

Additionally, the mission met with representatives from civil society, the private sector, business associations, and international development partners to gather perspectives on governance challenges and anti-corruption efforts.

The IMF team would like to thank the Kenyan authorities and other stakeholders for their hospitality, excellent cooperation, and candid and constructive discussions.

Collaboration on the Governance Diagnostic will continue over the next several months. A draft report, which will set out the findings and propose a sequenced, prioritized reform plan, is expected to be shared with the authorities for review and additional input before end of 2025.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/07/02/pr25233-kenya-imf-staff-completes-governance-diagnostic-mission-to-kenya

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

July 1, 2025

Sarajevo:

Growth has proven resilient supported by expansionary fiscal policies, but inflation has picked up, and risks are elevated due to external shocks and domestic political tensions. Progress towards EU accession could boost confidence, but political hurdles persist. Fiscal policy should focus on restoring buffers and improving spending quality. The authorities should refrain from further discretionary measures that widen the deficit and strengthen contingency planning. Both entities face large financing needs that are expected to be met through external borrowing, with a Eurobond issuance in FBiH and bilateral loans in the RS, along with some domestic issuances. The authorities should prepare contingency plans in case of financing shortfalls. Reforms, including a review of public employment, wages, and social benefits are needed to achieve a debt-stabilizing primary balance.

To safeguard monetary stability, it is essential to maintain the currency board and uphold the independence of the central bank. The authorities should continue to closely monitor financial sector risks and enhance crisis preparedness. The establishment of a country-wide financial stability fund, which would facilitate bank restructuring and provide liquidity on an exceptional basis, would substantially strengthen the financial safety net. To accelerate growth, the authorities need to speed up reforms to improve fiscal governance, protect financial integrity, fight corruption, and step up digitalization. Transitioning from coal to green energy along with preparing for the introduction of EU carbon taxes are major challenges ahead. Placing BiH on a higher growth path and providing its people with more opportunities will speed up income convergence with the EU and reduce emigration.

Recent developments and outlook

Despite a challenging environment, the economy has been resilient. Growth accelerated to 2.5 percent in 2024 from 2 percent in 2023, with strong domestic demand outweighing a decline in net exports. Household consumption was supported by strong growth in credit and remittances; private investment accelerated. The unemployment rate declined to 11.7 percent in Q4:2024, with real wages growing at an annual rate of 8 percent. The current account deficit widened to 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024 from 2¼ percent in 2023, reflecting a drought-induced decline in electricity exports, weaker demand for exports, and higher imports associated with strong domestic demand. Inflation fell to 1.7 percent in 2024 from 6¼ percent in 2023, owing to a slowdown in fuel and utilities prices. However, since end-2024, inflation has been rising again to 3.7 percent (yoy) in May, driven mainly by higher food prices.

The economic outlook remains uncertain amid elevated downside risks. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2025 supported by an improvement in net exports, a stronger fiscal impulse, and private consumption. However, the outlook is vulnerable to both domestic and external shocks. A worsening in geopolitical tensions and a resulting slowdown in Europe, or increased commodity price volatility could raise food and energy prices, lower BiH exports and remittances, and dampen domestic demand. An escalation of political tensions could further increase economic fragmentation and weigh on investor confidence and growth. In the absence of faster reform progress, medium-term growth is expected to remain around 3 percent—insufficient for rapid income convergence with the EU. Inflation is expected to remain elevated during 2025, and as food inflation eases, gradually decline from 2026, approaching the ECB target of 2 percent.  

Fiscal policy and reforms

Fiscal performance in 2024 was stronger than expected. The general government deficit turned out to be 1¾ percent of GDP, the same as in 2023, but better than anticipated at the time of the 2024 AIV Consultation. The authorities leveraged a large increase in tax revenues to boost spending on wages, goods and services, social benefits, and public investments.

With fiscal policy expected to ease in 2025, the authorities should avoid further discretionary measures and strengthen contingency planning. Entity budgets and subsequently-adopted measures envisage increases in public wages and pensions, reflecting both legally-mandated indexation and discretionary changes. The widening deficit, which could reach 2.6 percent of GDP, is expected to be mainly financed mostly through foreign borrowing, as well as domestic banks. The authorities should avoid policies that further expand the deficit as this would likely put upward pressure on rising prices and widen external imbalances. Moreover, given mounting downside risks, the authorities should aim to build cash buffers and develop contingency plans. Depending on the severity of a potential shock the authorities should use the available buffers and activate contingency plans.

Over the medium term, the authorities are advised to place fiscal deficits on a firmly declining path starting from 2026, build fiscal buffers, and enhance the economy’s growth potential. Persistently high deficits risk placing public debt on an upward trajectory and may worsen financing terms. Fiscal consolidation should begin in 2026, with the goal of reducing the primary deficit to its debt-stabilizing level, while improving the quality of spending and rebuilding treasury balances. Priority should be given to spending measures that enhance efficiency—particularly by rationalizing the public wage bill through functional reviews and improving the targeting of social assistance programs. These measures should be complemented by revenue mobilization efforts, including broadening the tax base through the reduction of exemptions and development of new revenue sources, such as taxing dividends. Any fiscally costly policies should be strictly avoided or offset. Given significant infrastructure gaps, increasing both the level and quality of public investment should be a key objective.

Fiscal consolidation efforts should be accompanied by institutional and structural fiscal reforms. Strengthening fiscal discipline will require a review of existing fiscal rules to assess whether they are appropriately designed to meet macroeconomic management and developmental needs and whether there are sufficient institutional arrangements in place to ensure that they are met. The recent materialization of contingent liabilities related to international arbitration cases underscores the urgency of enhancing fiscal risk management. This includes timely identification of all sources of fiscal risks, assessment of risk magnitude and likelihood, development of mitigation strategies, and reinforcement of the institutional framework. In this context, improving the oversight and governance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is crucial. Reducing inefficiencies in public investment management remains a priority. This involves better project selection, rigorous appraisal processes, efficient and transparency procurement, and stronger portfolio management and oversight. Finally, implementing robust beneficiary registries would improve the targeting of social assistance programs by reducing inclusion and exclusion errors, improving efficiency, and enhancing transparency and accountability.

Currency board arrangement and financial sector policies and reforms

For three decades, the currency board arrangement (CBA) has been a cornerstone of macroeconomic stability and must be preserved. The CBA has ensured the stability of the domestic currency, while reinforcing policy credibility and fiscal discipline. Benefiting from strong institutional independence, the Central Bank (CBBH), has consistently maintained net foreign exchange reserves well above the level of its monetary liabilities. Safeguarding the CBBH’s independence is critical to preserving the credibility and effectiveness of the CBA.

The CBBH should further strengthen the reserve requirement framework. In line with IMF advice, the CBBH applies differentiated remuneration rates on reserve requirements for foreign and domestic currency liabilities. Falling euro area interest rates offer an opportunity to reduce the gap with CBBH remuneration rates on required reserves and the opportunity costs for holding reserves. A further comprehensive review of the reserve requirement framework, with technical assistance from the IMF, and implementation of previous recommendations would further strengthen the CBBH’s capacity to achieve its policy objectives.  

Sustained strong credit growth calls for close monitoring of systemic risks and continued efforts to safeguard banking sector resilience. Credit expansion has been driven by rising wages, declining lending rates, and a booming real estate market. Despite this rapid growth, banks remain well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, while the share of non-performing loans continues to decline. Nonetheless, vigilance is warranted. The authorities should closely monitor financial sector developments and be prepared to deploy macroprudential tools to address risks from credit growth and rising real estate prices. Following introduction of additional capital buffers for systemic risk (SyRB) and domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), the macroprudential toolkit should be expanded to include a countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and borrower-based measures such as limits on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and debt-service to income (DSTI) ratios. To preserve resilience, reducing the regulatory capital requirement from 12 to 10 percent as planned from end-2026 should be avoided. The authorities are also advised to avoid further extensions of temporary regulatory measures that aim to contain lending rate increases and to remove limits on bank exposures to foreign governments and central banks.

Progress made on coordination on financial sector issues, under the leadership of the CBBH, should be maintained. Regular financial sector coordination meetings strengthen inter-agency cooperation and help ensure smooth information exchange. Additionally, the authorities are encouraged to establish a country-wide Financial Stability Fund to support orderly bank resolution and to cooperate across state-level institutions and both entities to request a new IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)—already requested by the CBBH—to comprehensively assess resilience and outline a roadmap for further reform, including in the context of EU accession.

We commend the CBBH and the other relevant authorities for their strong efforts to integrate BiH with the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). SEPA integration will enable faster and more convenient euro payments across borders within the SEPA area, lower transaction costs, and foster deeper trade and economic integration within Europe. It is crucial that the relevant legislative amendments are adopted in a timely manner to pave the way for the submission of the application for SEPA membership. In addition, the development of the TIPS Clone—the project implemented by the CBBH in cooperation with the Bank of Italy—will provide infrastructure for instant payments.

Structural reforms

Advancing toward EU membership will require a stronger, more coordinated, and results-driven approach. Persistent political fragmentation, lack of consensus among governing bodies, and limited administrative capacity continue to obstruct the adoption and execution of key reforms. In this context, timely adoption and implementation of the EU Growth Plan offers a valuable opportunity. Reforms under the growth plan will align BiH more closely with the EU single market, advance EU accession, and unlock €1 billion in additional financing over 2025–27 period.

The authorities should accelerate energy sector reforms to reduce fiscal risks and prepare for implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Key reforms include phasing out electricity subsidies over the medium term—while protecting vulnerable households—and advancing efficiency improvements in energy SOEs. CBAM charges are set to take effect from 2026, with the largest anticipated impact on the BiH electricity sector. To mitigate this, it is essential to establish a domestic power exchange system and an agreed roadmap and legislative framework for introduction of carbon pricing at the state level. These steps would enable BiH to unlock new investment in renewable electricity generation, reducing the overall burden of CBAM. Implementation of carbon pricing will allow BiH to retain carbon-related revenues domestically and potentially secure a CBAM exemption for electricity exports to the EU.

Reforms that tackle the labor market, governance, and digitalization are also crucial. The authorities should take a structured approach to minimum wage increases that avoids high, frequent, and ad hoc adjustments. Complementary reforms are needed to address low labor market participation (particularly among women) and high youth unemployment. The authorities should urgently implement MONEYVAL priority actions to avoid being grey listed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in early 2026. Grey listing could impose significant economic costs through reduced investment, delays in international payments, and increased transaction costs. Finally, developing digital identity and trust services, and providing government e-services, would strengthen the business environment.

*   *   *   *   *

The mission thanks the authorities and all other counterparts for their hospitality and for the constructive and insightful discussions in Sarajevo and Banja Luka.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/07/01/cs-070125-bosnia-and-herzegovina-staff-concluding-statement-for-2025-aiv-consultation-mission

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

Comprehensive reforms have fueled Seychelles’ journey out of crisis and its continued resilience in the face of shocks

Todd Schneider is IMF mission chief to Seychelles and an advisor in the IMF’s African Department, where Hany Abdel-Latif is an economist, Pedro Maciel is a senior economist, and Henry Quach is a research analyst.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/07/01/cf-seychelles-path-to-macroeconomic-stability-and-resilience

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

July 1, 2025

Bern: Switzerland continues to benefit from strong fundamentals, highly credible institutions, and a skilled labor force, positioning it among the world’s most competitive, resilient, and innovative economies. Economic performance has been strong. Nonetheless, Switzerland faces important challenges, including from evolving global economic conditions, rising global trade tensions, and persistent safe-haven pressures and franc appreciation. The ongoing IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) has called for strengthening supervisory, resolution, and crisis management frameworks, including to address gaps exposed during the Credit Suisse crisis, where the authorities are taking action. Navigating these challenges will require broad policy consensus and effective macroeconomic management. Priorities include safeguarding price stability, addressing emerging fiscal pressures, advancing strong financial sector reforms, implementing structural measures to boost productivity and competitiveness, and ratifying the new package of agreements with the EU to enhance external resilience.

Economic Outlook

With global headwinds, growth is projected to remain somewhat below potential in 2025-26. Growth is expected to reach 1.3 percent in 2025 (sporting events adjusted), up from 1 percent in 2024, driven by private consumption supported by real wage growth and stronger construction activity with easier monetary conditions. While unemployment rates have remained near their natural level, recent labor market indicators suggest some softening, e.g., declines in the vacancy-to-employment ratio. This is in line with moderate slack (0.3 percent of potential GDP) in 2025. Growth is projected at 1.2 percent in 2026, converging to potential (1.5 percent) by 2030, driven by a gradual increase in domestic and external demand; trade tariffs in the baseline reflect those prevailing in June 2025. Switzerland’s external position is assessed to be broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.

With a temporary decline below zero, headline inflation in 2025 will remain subdued; core inflation is expected to stay above zero and within the price stability range. While core inflation through May was 0.5 percent (y/y), reflecting some deceleration in rent inflation, headline inflation declined to -0.1 percent (y/y) driven by franc appreciation, lower electricity tariffs, and softer international oil prices, and is projected to end 2025 at 0.1 percent (y/y). Accommodative monetary policy and higher oil prices are expected to drive headline inflation to 0.6 percent (y/y) by end-2026.

Important risks loom, particularly from external factors. Worsening geopolitical tensions and fragmentation, volatile energy prices, and uncertainty over trade policy and tariff levels could adversely impact confidence, exports, and investment. Sectoral impacts would likely vary. Heightened uncertainty could spark further safe-haven inflows and appreciation pressures with additional challenges for export-oriented and import-competing sectors. If heightened uncertainty extends over the medium term, Switzerland’s growth model could be affected if supply chains are disrupted and R&D spending is scaled back, impacting innovation, productivity, and potential growth. On the upside, a positive resolution of tariff negotiations with the U.S., both for Switzerland and the EU, would lead to better growth prospects and alleviate appreciation pressures. Fiscal easing in Germany may also support activity more than expected. Domestic demand may be bolstered by planned pension payment increases.

Monetary Policy: Mitigating Deflationary Pressures

The recent 25 bps policy rate cut was appropriate considering recent declines in inflation, signs of weakening in the labor market, and external uncertainty. This brought the cumulative policy easing over the past 1½ years to 175 bps and placed the policy rate at zero. Notably, core inflation has remained within the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0–2 percent price stability range, and medium-term inflation expectations have stayed anchored around the mid-point of the range. While additional easing may be needed if deflationary pressures materialize, future policy action needs to consider that trade-offs of further easing become more pronounced when policy rates decline below zero. Negative rates may amplify financial sector risks through lower bank profitability and possibly higher real estate exposures. Given the limited space for further policy rate cuts (the SNB’s main policy tool), these should be aimed at sharp and (or) persistent deflationary pressures that risk de-anchoring medium-term inflation expectations. Temporarily negative headline inflation should not warrant further easing. While intervention in the foreign exchange market (FXIs) may be needed to smooth the impact of safe-haven financial inflow surges, FXIs should continue to be considered cautiously, also given the SNB’s already large balance sheet. To mitigate balance sheet risks, the upcoming review of dividend policy should ensure that robust capital buffers are maintained and refrain from raising distributions.

The SNB should continue to assess whether its monetary policy and communication frameworks warrant adjustments. Given the specific challenges facing Swiss monetary policy in a context of elevated uncertainty and low equilibrium interest rates, a review, possibly with external support as in the case of other major central banks, could be useful. The SNB should consider whether providing additional information in the context of monetary policy assessments or between quarterly meetings could support policy guidance. In light of the heightened uncertainty, attention should be given to clarifying the reaction function (including via scenario analysis) and strengthening the formulation of risks to the outlook.

 

Fiscal Policy: Addressing Long-Term Fiscal Challenges

The moderately looser fiscal stance projected for 2025 is appropriate given some economic slack. The general government’s overall fiscal surplus is projected to decline to 0.3 percent of GDP in 2025 from 0.6 percent of GDP in 2024, largely reflecting a reduction in the surplus of social security funds. The federal government’s deficit is projected to remain broadly unchanged vs. 2024 (0.2 percent of GDP), as higher defense and social welfare spending is offset by budget consolidation measures. The proposed Relief Package 2027 aims to cut expenditures by CHF 2–3 billion on a permanent basis from 2027 onwards to comply with the debt brake rule amid spending pressures and uncertain tax reform impacts. Staff note the limited room for maneuver implied by the debt-brake rule and the authorities’ choice of spending cuts over tax hikes. If moderate downside risks materialize, automatic stabilizers should operate fully. In the event of severe shocks, targeted transfers may be warranted via extraordinary provisions of the debt brake rule to avoid a deep recession, including one induced by a deflationary spiral. As in the past, staff note that there is a bias toward fiscal surpluses through spending below budget allocations and cautious revenue forecasts; efforts should continue to mitigate this where possible.

Planned increases in pension payments will require additional revenues to preserve the financial strength of social security funds. A new 13^th monthly pension payment, planned to start in December 2026, will require additional outlays of CHF 4.2 billion annually (0.5 percent of GDP). To this end, the Federal Council has proposed financing options, including a VAT rate increase of 0.7 ppt. Continued efforts, including stabilizing Pillar I pension finances for 2030-40, are essential to ensure long-term pension system viability amidst changing demographics and rising costs. Timely repayment (or recapitalization) of the disability insurance (IV) debt to the old-age and survivor’s insurance (AHV) is critical to safeguarding the structural and financial soundness of both schemes.

Demographic trends, climate change, and defense spending pressures create medium-to-long term fiscal challenges. The 2024 Fiscal Sustainability Report projected demographic-related expenditures rising by 3 percent of GDP by 2060; absent compensatory policy decisions, climate mitigation measures to reach the net zero target could raise public debt by 3–4 ppt of GDP by 2040 and 8–11 ppt by 2060, depending on policy choices (e.g., carbon taxation vs. subsidies) and compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Defense spending is expected to increase significantly by 2032. Given the provisions of the debt brake rule, a comprehensive medium-and-long term plan is needed to identify and ensure that revenue increases and spending reprioritization are sufficient to meet these and other needs. A careful assessment is needed to determine whether pressures will emerge at the federal or cantonal level and whether the division of responsibilities across levels of government may need to be adjusted accordingly.

Financial Sector: Enhancing Systemic Resilience

While Switzerland’s financial system demonstrated resilience, systemic risks have remained high due to sizable real estate exposures. Mortgages account for a large share of bank lending and of assets of life insurers and pension funds. Risks are heightened by house price overvaluation, loosening mortgage lending standards, and initiatives to ease affordability criteria for new borrowers. Lower interest rates may further pressure banks, potentially leading to increased risk-taking.

The ongoing FSAP has found the financial sector to be broadly resilient to severe shocks. Systemically-important (SIBs) and most other banks would remain above regulatory capital requirements under stress. Overall, liquidity risks for banks are relatively limited. Insurers also withstand severe solvency and liquidity scenarios. Still, global uncertainty and financial stability risks warrant reinforcing resilience.

The 2023 Credit Suisse (CS) crisis exposed gaps in supervisory, resolution and crisis management frameworks and increased Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF) risks, which the authorities have begun to address. Drawing on lessons from the CS crisis, the Federal Council has recently proposed several reforms aimed at strengthening the financial sector and thereby reducing the risks for the state, taxpayers and the economy. These would improve the TBTF framework, enhance bank governance, strengthen prevention, early intervention, and crisis preparedness, and expand the powers of FINMA. Staff commends the authorities as these proposals are broadly in line with FSAP recommendations; timely implementation of these bold reforms would further strengthen the long-term stability of the Swiss financial center.

Enhanced legal powers and resources for FINMA are critical to strengthening the effectiveness of supervision. FINMA’s legal powers should be expanded to include a full suite of early intervention powers, immediately enforceable, including the ability to preemptively restrict banks’ business activities, require capital conservation measures, address governance failures, and rectify deficiencies in risk management. FINMA should be able to conduct onsite inspections as necessary, require forward-looking Pillar 2 capital add-on, impose administrative fines, and have broader ability to prescribe binding supervisory standards. FINMA should reduce reliance on external auditors. Enhanced market monitoring and reporting and better mechanisms for market abuse prevention, detection, and enforcement would benefit securities supervision. Overall, more supervisory resources are needed, including for direct supervision in corporate governance, risk management, market conduct, AML/CFT, cyber risk, and recovery and resolution. FINMA needs to be proactive and direct in its engagement with supervised firms across sectors (banks, insurance, securities).

Systemic real estate risks call for expanding the macroprudential toolkit. The FSAP recommends introducing a debt-service-to-income (DSTI) cap in addition to the existing loan-to-value (LTV) cap and a sectoral capital-based instrument, separate from the sectoral countercyclical buffer (CCyB), which already stands at the 2.5 percent maximum. It would be also helpful to establish a formal Systemic Risk Council, comprised of SNB, FINMA, and Federal Department of Finance (FDF) representatives to regularly assess and communicate on systemic risk and decide on necessary policy measures.

Switzerland’s financial safety net should be cast wider to better secure financial stability. Resolution planning should also cover Category 3 banks, which include some large and complex market participants, as well as designated insurance groups, and financial market infrastructures. FINMA, SNB, and FDF need to develop, and practice coordinated crisis response plans. The cap on deposit insurance contributions should be removed, and deposit insurance gradually aligned with international best practices. SNB efforts to establish and communicate a comprehensive emergency liquidity assistance framework—expanding support to all banks and making drawing conditions more flexible—are an important reinforcement of the safety net. The introduction of a Public Liquidity Backstop for SIBs, with the possibility of extending it to non-SIBs that might be systemic in failure, would provide an instrument allowing additional room for maneuver in a crisis.

To protect the resilience and integrity of the Swiss financial center, enhanced vigilance on cyber, AML/CFT, crypto, and fintech risks is paramount. The cyber resilience framework should be broadened to all financial sector entities and external service providers. Progress in rolling out the Registry of Beneficial Ownership should continue, and the legal framework expanded to gatekeepers, including lawyers, accountants, trust, and company service providers. Crypto exposures, which are increasing, should be assessed comprehensively and the related Basel standards implemented in a timely manner. The concentrated and increasingly complex FMI structure warrants closer oversight and enhanced collaboration with foreign authorities, particularly in shared risk management platforms, recovery, and resolution.

Structural Policies: Supporting Productivity Growth and Resilience to Global Shocks

Switzerland enjoys high labor productivity—on par with the U.S. and above European peers. This has been supported by strong R&D, a high-quality education system, and deep global integration that fosters competition and innovation. Multinational corporations in high-value-added manufacturing have driven much of this performance. Labor productivity in small firms and services has lagged, constrained by low R&D intensity, limited access to funding, small markets, and expensive skilled labor. To sustain its competitive edge, Switzerland would benefit from policies that reduce administrative burdens, improve access to equity and R&D financing, strengthen ties to larger markets, and address labor shortages through upskilling and an open labor market. The ongoing revision of the Vocational Training Act is a welcome step, reinforcing Switzerland’s strength in workforce development and skills adaptation in a changing economy.

The conclusion of negotiations with the EU resulted in a broad package of sectoral agreements aimed at stabilizing and developing bilateral relations. These agreements—covering areas such as electricity, food safety, and participation in EU programs—will require ratification by both sides, for which the necessary procedures have been launched. Continued engagement with the EU and other partners remains important to reduce uncertainty, safeguard access to critical markets, and strengthen resilience in the face of rising geo-economic fragmentation.

 

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The IMF team thanks the Swiss authorities and other stakeholders for their hospitality, engaging discussions, and productive collaboration. We are especially grateful to the SNB and the State Secretariat for International Finance for assistance with arrangements.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/30/07012025-mcs-switzerland-imf-concluding-statement-2025-art-iv-consultation-mission

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

June 30, 2025

• The IMF Executive Board today concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation and completed the eighth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Guinea-Bissau. The completion of the review allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 4.73 million (about US$ 6.5 million), bringing total disbursement under the arrangement to SDR 35.04 million (about US$ 48.1 million)
• Program performance was mixed. Seven out of nine Quantitative Performance Criteria and three out of four Structural Benchmarks for end-December 2024 were met. The continuous Structural Benchmark on debt service payments was met while the continuous Structural Benchmark on the expenditure committee (COTADO) was missed.
• Growth is expected to reach 5.1 percent in 2025 while inflation should average 2 percent. The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting better terms of trade. The authorities are committed to achieving a fiscal deficit of 3.4 percent of GDP in 2025, to put public debt on a firm downward trajectory. The economic outlook is positive but remains subject to significant domestic and external risks.

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded today the 2025 Article IV consultation[1] and completed the eighth review under Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Guinea-Bissau. The three-year arrangement, approved on January 30, 2023, aims to secure debt sustainability, improve governance, and reduce corruption, while creating fiscal space to foster inclusive growth. The Executive Board granted an augmentation of access (140 percent of quota or SDR 39.76 million) on November 29, 2023. The completion of the eighth review enables the disbursement of SDR 4.73 million (about US$ 6.5 million) to help meet the country’s balance-of-payments and fiscal financing needs. This brings total disbursement under the arrangement to SDR 35.04 million (about US$ 48.1 million). The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.[2]

Program performance was mixed. Seven out of nine Quantitative Performance Criteria and three out of four Structural Benchmarks for end-December 2024 were met. The continuous Structural Benchmark on debt service payments was met while the continuous Structural Benchmark on the expenditure committee (COTADO) was missed. In completing the eighth review, the Executive Board granted waivers for the non-observance of quantitative performance criteria based on corrective actions taken by the authorities [including the revenue and expenditure measures adopted as prior actions for the review], approved the authorities’ request for modification of performance criteria and indicative targets, and completed the financing assurance review. The Executive Board also approved the authorities’ request for the program extension until July 29, 2026, and rephasing of access to provide them with sufficient time to implement fiscal consolidation policies supported by the ECF program.

Economic growth is projected to reach 5.1 percent in 2025, supported by strong exports and investments, while inflation is expected to decelerate and average 2 percent. The current account deficit should narrow to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting a significant improvement in Guinea-Bissau’s terms of trade. The authorities are committed to achieving a fiscal deficit of 3.4 percent of GDP in 2025 to put public debt on a firm downward trajectory. While the direct impact of recent global trade tensions on Guinea-Bissau is limited, the economy remains subject to significant downside risks amid a challenging socio-political climate in an election year and capacity constraints. The 2025 Article IV consultation discussions focused on policies aimed at supporting economic diversification to reduce dependency on cashew nuts, maintaining fiscal sustainability through domestic revenue mobilization, and bolstering social protection and human capital to promote inclusive growth.

Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Okamura, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

“The economy of Guinea-Bissau has been resilient, supported by strong investment spending. While growth is projected to continue around its potential of 4½-5 percent over the medium term, significant challenges remain. In particular, the high export dependency on cashew nuts and the high risk of debt distress leave the country vulnerable to adverse changes in the international environment. Against this background, the authorities are focused on policies designed to diversify the economy and broaden the export base, including by supporting additional growth sectors such as mining and fishing.

“Achieving the fiscal consolidation target for 2025 is essential to reduce public debt vulnerabilities. In this context, the authorities remain committed to containing domestic primary spending within the 2025 budget and to maintain strict control over the wage bill. This is being supported by strong expenditure controls, including by ensuring that project disbursements are thoroughly verified and discretionary spending remains within agreed allocations. Measures to boost revenue mobilization to bring tax collection closer to its potential through a combination of tax policy measures and revenue administration reforms are vital to create fiscal space to support economic development while reducing fiscal risks.

“Good progress has been made in addressing financial sector vulnerabilities. The recent approval by the regional Banking Commission for the purchase offer for the undercapitalized bank, and the authorities’ decision to divest the government’s stake in the bank, are important steps in reducing systemic financial sector risks.

“Boosting inclusive growth calls for implementing sustained social protection programs to protect the poor, diversifying the economy, strengthening the business environment and governance, and improving the efficiency of education and health spending. Broadening the coverage of social protection programs and mainstreaming them within government structures would help reduce poverty indicators. At the same time, progressively reducing broad-based subsidies and moving towards more targeted programs would also boost the impact of social spending.”

 

Executive Board Assessment[3]

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed the resilience of the economy and the significant progress in infrastructure development since the last Article IV consultation. Noting the mixed performance under the ECF and significant downside risks, they welcomed the strong corrective measures that have been implemented as prior actions for the eighth ECF review. They supported the authorities’ request for a six-month extension of the ECF, to help anchor the fiscal targets for the whole of 2025 and reinforce the commitment to fiscal consolidation.

Given the high risk of debt distress, Directors underscored the critical importance of sustained fiscal consolidation and further reinforcing debt management to ensure that the debt to GDP ratio remains on a downward trajectory. They encouraged the authorities to boost revenue mobilization through tax policy and tax administration measures, thereby creating fiscal space for priority social and development spending while strengthening debt sustainability. They called for reinforcing expenditure controls and strengthening public financial management to contain the wage bill and prevent the recurrence of spending overruns. Continuing to refrain from nonconcessional borrowing while keeping further concessional borrowing within program targets remains important. Fiscal risks from the public utility company should also be addressed, including by speeding up its revenue mobilization.

Directors welcomed the approval of the sale of the undercapitalized bank, which paves the way for the government’s disengagement. They called for a swift capitalization of the bank by its new owners to strengthen financial sector resilience.

Directors stressed the need for sustained structural reforms to underpin macroeconomic stabilization and boost growth. They highlighted the importance of efforts to strengthen the business environment, remove market distortions, and reduce informality. Diversifying the economy, notably in sectors with potential such as fishing, mining, and traditional agriculture, remains critical for inclusive growth and reducing dependence on cashew exports. They urged the authorities to expedite steps to strengthen governance, anti-corruption, and AML/CFT standards. They called for reforms to strengthen procurement transparency and enhance the robustness of the audit function, to help improve public sector transparency and efficiency.

Directors positively noted the authorities’ efforts to address gaps in the provision of macroeconomic data.

It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Guinea Bissau will be held on a 24-month cycle in accordance with the Executive Board decision on consultation cycles for members with Fund arrangements.

 

Guinea-Bissau: Selected Economic Indicators, 2022-26 Population (2024): 2.0 million                                      Per capita GDP (2024): US$ 1,104 Main export product: cashew nuts                               Key export markets: India, Vietnam   2022 2023 2024 2025 2026       Prel. Proj. Proj. Output           Real GPD growth (%) 4.6 5.2 4.8 5.1 5.0 Prices           Inflation (annual average, %) 7.9 7.2 3.7 2.0 2.0 Central government finances           Revenue and grants (% GDP) 15.2 13.7 13.1 16.1 15.7 Expenditure (% GDP) 21.3 21.9 20.4 19.5 19.2 Fiscal balance (% GDP) -6.1 -8.2 -7.3 -3.4 -3.5 Public debt (% GDP) 80.7 79.4 82.2 78.5 76.3 Money and credit           Broad money (% change) 3.5 -1.1 6.2 5.6 5.4 Credit to economy (% change) 23.5 -9.4 -12.2 14.4 13.8 Balance of payments           Current account (% GDP) -8.6 -8.6 -8.2 -5.8 -5.0 FDI (% GDP) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 WAEMU reserves (US$ billions) 25.2 26.1 … … … External public debt (% GDP) 39.0 35.4 34.7 32.0 30.9 Exchange rate           CFAF/US$ (average) 622.4 606.5 606.2 … … Sources: Guinea-Bissau authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] Under the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the www.imf.org/guinea-bissau page.

[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/07/01/pr25230-guinea-bissau-2025-article-iv-and-eighth-review

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

June 30, 2025

• The IMF Executive Board today completed the second review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Togo, allowing the authorities to draw about SDR 44.0 million (about US$ 60.5 million). The Executive Board approved the 42-month ECF arrangement in March 2024 and concluded the first review in December 2024.
• Growth has remained robust, and inflation has continued to slow. The medium-term economic outlook is favorable, with sustained robust growth, but elevated risks remain.
• Implementation of the IMF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory: the authorities met all quantitative targets at end-December 2024 except for the performance criterion on the fiscal balance, and they have met all but one structural benchmark due since the completion of the first ECF review.

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the second review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Togo. The Board’s decision enables the immediate disbursement of about SDR 44.0 million (about US$ 60.5 million), which will be used for budget support. The ECF-arrangement provides overall financing of SDR 293.60 million (about US$ 403.4 million) on favorable terms.

The IMF approved the ECF arrangement in March 2024 to help the authorities address the legacies of shocks experienced since 2020, notably the COVID pandemic and the increase in global food and fuel prices. The Togolese authorities were able to lessen the impacts of these shocks on the Togolese population, but this came at the price of large fiscal deficits and a rapidly rising public debt burden. The IMF-supported government program aims to (i) make growth more inclusive while strengthening debt sustainability, and (ii) implement structural reforms to support growth and limit fiscal and financial sector risks. The IMF Executive Board completed the first ECF review in December 2024.  

The medium-term outlook is broadly favorable, with continued robust growth. Economic growth reached an estimated 5.3 percent in 2024 and is projected at 5.2 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent per year thereafter, according to IMF staff projections, barring major adverse shocks. Headline inflation eased to 2.6 percent in April 2025 and core inflation (which excludes the prices of energy and fresh products) fell to 1.3 percent (annual averages).

However, the outlook is subject to high risks. In particular, insecurity from the presence of terrorist groups at the country’s northern border continues, putting pressure on spending. The authorities face challenging trade-offs between the need to achieve fiscal consolidation to lower the debt burden and the need to maintain security, enhance inclusion, and support growth.

Implementation of the IMF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory. The authorities met all quantitative targets at end-December 2024 except for the performance criterion on the fiscal balance. A notable success has been that the authorities raised tax revenue in 2024 as planned and pushed non-tax revenue beyond expectations. At the same time, higher-than-budgeted spending pushed debt higher. The authorities also met all but one structural benchmark due since the completion of the first ECF review, thanks to public financial management and banking sector reforms.

At the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion, Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director, and Acting Chair, made the following statement: 

“The authorities have implemented the IMF-supported program in an overall satisfactory manner in an environment marked by continued security challenges, tight financing conditions, and elevated global uncertainty. Among other achievements, the authorities mobilized tax revenue in line with targets, while non-tax revenue exceeded projections.

“Nonetheless, progress on fiscal consolidation has been slower than programmed due to operations the authorities recorded below the line, resulting in faster-than-expected debt accumulation. The authorities’ efforts to address this development, in particular the publication of an innovative note on budget execution and debt accumulation, are welcome.

“Against this background, the authorities are encouraged to redouble their efforts at fiscal consolidation while preserving growth and strengthening inclusion. The IMF approves the authorities’ request for a limited relaxation of the fiscal deficit target for 2024 and for delaying the goal of lowering the present value of debt below 55 percent of GDP by one year, to 2027. These modifications appropriately balance the need to respond to security threats against the need to strengthen debt sustainability. 

“Further, the authorities are encouraged to continue efforts to enhance revenue while making taxation more efficient, supported by a timely elaboration of a medium-term revenue mobilization strategy. Reforms to improve the efficiency of spending and strengthen the effectiveness of the social safety net, including phasing out fuel subsidies, will also be important. Further, it will be important to strengthen electricity and water provision, including raising tariffs to ensure cost recovery in combination with measures to protect the most vulnerable.

“The IMF welcomes the authorities’ efforts to reduce financial sector and fiscal risks by recapitalizing the remaining state-owned bank, which have boosted the bank’s compliance with regulatory norms. Further efforts will be needed to address the remaining breaches of regulatory norms and to restructure the bank’s operations to ensure its stability and profitability.

“Finally, efforts to strengthen governance will be critical for nurturing the business environment and supporting sustainable growth. The authorities’ commitment to publishing the planned Governance Diagnostic Assessment is very welcome. The authorities should also align asset and income declarations regime with international standards.”

Togo: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2023–27
	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
	Estimates		Projections
Real GDP	5.6	5.3	5.2	5.5	5.5
Real GDP per capita	3.1	2.8	2.7	3.0	3.0
GDP deflator	2.9	2.2	2.0	2.0	2.0
Consumer price index (annual average)	5.3	2.9	2.3	2.0	2.0
GDP (CFAF billions)	5,507	5,927	6,360	6,843	7,364
Exchange rate CFAF/US$ (annual average level)	606	…	…	…	…
Real effective exchange rate (appreciation = –)	-8.2	…	…	…	…
Terms of trade (deterioration = –)	2.5	-0.4	-0.3	0.9	0.6
Monetary survey
Net foreign assets	2.0	1.3	3.6	2.4	2.3
Net credit to government	1.2	8.6	2.6	-1.3	-0.1
Credit to nongovernment sector	2.9	3.6	1.4	7.4	7.0
Broad money (M2)	6.5	8.5	7.3	7.6	7.6
Velocity (GDP/end-of-period M2)	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
Investment and savings
Gross domestic investment	28.0	26.8	25.6	24.4	25.3
Government	11.5	10.1	8.5	7.1	7.8
Nongovernment	16.5	16.7	17.1	17.3	17.5
Gross national savings	24.0	23.7	23.2	23.0	24.3
Government	4.8	2.7	4.6	4.1	4.8
Nongovernment	19.2	20.9	18.7	18.8	19.5
Government budget
Total revenue and grants	19.8	19.0	18.8	18.5	19.0
Revenue	16.8	17.0	16.6	17.1	17.6
Tax revenue	14.8	14.9	15.4	15.9	16.4
Expenditure and net lending	26.6	26.4	22.7	21.5	22.0
Expenditure and net lending (excl. banking sector operations)	26.6	25.4	22.3	21.5	22.0
Primary balance (commitment basis, incl. grants)	-3.9	-4.5	-1.2	-0.2	-0.4
Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants, excl. banking sector operations)	-6.7	-6.4	-3.5	-3.0	-3.0
Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants)	-6.7	-7.4	-3.9	-3.0	-3.0
Primary balance (cash basis, incl. grants)	-3.9	-4.5	-1.2	-0.2	-0.4
Overall balance (cash basis, incl. grants, excl. banking sector operations)	-6.7	-6.4	-3.5	-3.0	-3.0
Overall balance (cash basis, incl. grants)	-6.7	-7.4	-3.9	-3.0	-3.0
External sector
Current account balance	-4.0	-3.2	-2.3	-1.4	-1.0
Exports (goods and services)	26.3	25.5	25.5	25.5	25.7
Imports (goods and services)	-37.8	-35.9	-34.3	-32.8	-32.5
External public debt1	26.3	30.4	32.8	32.1	32.7
External public debt service (percent of exports)1	7.7	10.0	14.8	15.0	8.1
Domestic public debt2	42.3	41.7	37.5	36.6	34.3
Total public debt3	68.6	72.1	70.2	68.7	66.9
Total public debt (excluding SOEs)4	67.3	71.2	69.6	68.2	66.6
Present value of total public debt3	62.3	63.2	60.0	57.0	54.0
Sources: Togolese authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.
1 Includes state-owned enterprise external debt.
2 Includes domestic arrears and state-owned enterprise domestic debt.
3 Includes domestic arrears and state-owned enterprise debt.
4 Includes domestic arrears.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/30/pr25229-togo-imf-completes-the-second-review-under-the-ecf-arrangement-for-togo

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

June 30, 2025

• Serbia’s prudent macroeconomic policies have supported economic resilience in an uncertain global environment. After a brief slowdown in early 2025, growth is expected to reaccelerate in 2026 and 2027.
• The authorities are maintaining fiscal discipline and implementing macro-critical structural reforms under the Policy Coordination Instrument, having completed the first review. While Serbia faces domestic and external uncertainties, it has built strong buffers to withstand potential shocks.
• Reinvigorating reforms to improve the business environment and governance would help sustain Serbia’s strong growth over the medium term.

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Serbia and completed the first review of Serbia’s performance under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI).[1] The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for the consultation and the review.[2]

Serbia’s macroeconomic performance remains resilient amid a challenging global environment. IMF staff projects real GDP growth at 3 percent in 2025, rising to 4 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027. Headline inflation has returned to National Bank of Serbia’s target band (3 percent +/-1.5 percentage points), driven by declining energy prices and moderating core inflation. The monetary policy stance is appropriately restrictive.

Despite increased public investment, the fiscal deficit remains under control due to strong revenue performance and prudent management of current spending. While the current account deficit has widened, reflecting higher imports supporting the public investment drive and weak external demand, international reserves remain ample.

Fiscal structural reforms are progressing, including in further strengthening public financial management and public investment management. Energy sector reforms are also advancing but more remains to be done to ensure financial sustainability and operational efficiency in state-owned energy enterprises. Reinvigorating reforms to strengthen the business environment and improve governance is important for supporting Serbia’s growth rates over the medium term.

Downside risks to the outlook are elevated. A global slowdown and further geoeconomic fragmentation could weigh on exports and foreign direct investment. Domestically, heightened political tensions could erode consumer and investor confidence. But Serbia is well-positioned to manage potential shocks— international reserves and government deposits are high, public debt is declining, and banks are well-capitalized and liquid.

At the conclusion of the Board discussion on the Republic of Serbia, Ms. Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, made the following statement:

“Serbia’s prudent macroeconomic policies and strong engagement with the IMF have delivered impressive results. Growth has been resilient, and fiscal and external buffers have strengthened. Reflecting these accomplishments, Serbia received its first-ever investment grade sovereign rating in 2024. Under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), the Serbian authorities have continued their commitment to sound economic policies and structural reforms.

“In light of easing inflation and heightened domestic and external challenges, the planned fiscal expansion focused on growth-enhancing investment, can help cushion the near-term slowdown while boosting medium-term growth. Fiscal policy anchored to the deficit target, which safeguards hard-earned fiscal credibility and contains pressures on current spending, is critical. As the current investment cycle winds down, gradual fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild buffers against external shocks. Advancing fiscal structural reforms remains essential, particularly to strengthen public financial management, enhance governance and transparency in public investment management, and address emerging fiscal risks.

“A restrictive monetary policy stance remains appropriate until disinflation is firmly sustained. While banks have been resilient and systemic risks remain contained, financial intermediation would benefit from additional improvements in regulatory and supervisory frameworks, including by closer alignment with EU standards. Continued progress on strengthening AML/CFT is also important.

“Further energy reforms remain crucial for securing sustainable and stable energy supplies. Increases in grid fees and electricity tariffs would improve cost recovery and the financial strength of energy state-owned enterprises and allow for investment in a more diversified and less carbon-intensive energy mix.

“Serbia faces medium-term challenges including from population aging. Enhancing productivity will be critical to sustaining income convergence with advanced economies. This will require structural and governance reforms to attract higher value-added FDI and domestic private investment to support growth. Improving the business environment will require measures to enhance commercial judicial frameworks, foster innovation, and strengthen governance.”

 

Executive Board Assessment[3]

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended Serbia’s prudent macroeconomic policies and strong commitment to reforms and welcomed the satisfactory performance under the Policy Coordination Instrument. Noting the heightened domestic and external risks to the outlook, Directors emphasized the importance of sustaining fiscal discipline, rebuilding buffers to shocks, and increasing productivity to support more sustainable growth.

Directors underscored that a fiscal deficit of 3.0 percent of GDP or lower would allow for priority investment spending, while preserving hard won credibility. They recognized the authorities’ commitment to adhere to the wage and pension special fiscal rules, which should help to keep public debt firmly on a downward path and support investor confidence. Directors welcomed the focus on ensuring transparent, accountable, and efficient government operations. Measures to improve public financial and investment management and fiscal risk management will help to maintain fiscal discipline, while ensuring the delivery of quality public investment. Directors also underscored the need to strengthen tax administration capacity. They welcomed the authorities’ commitment to addressing domestic arrears and preventing the accumulation of new arrears.

Directors agreed on the need to maintain a monetary policy tightening bias to achieve sustained disinflation. While noting that the banking sector has been resilient and systemic risks remain contained, Directors stressed the need for continued efforts to enhance regulatory and supervisory frameworks, including through closer alignment with EU standards. Continued efforts to strengthen AML/CFT frameworks are also important.

Directors highlighted that energy sector reforms remain essential to secure sustainable and stable energy supplies and support decarbonization. Accordingly, they welcomed the authorities’ commitment to strengthen the financial viability of energy state owned enterprises and support investment in a more diversified energy mix. In this regard, ensuring cost recovery through increased household electricity tariffs is important.

Directors agreed that ambitious structural and governance reforms are critical to achieving strong and sustainable medium term growth. Noting the impact of the aging population, Directors stressed the need to enhance employment opportunities for women and youth and to ensure better matching of skills with evolving labor market demands. They also supported intensified efforts to improve the business environment, including by enhancing commercial judicial frameworks, fostering innovation, and improving governance. Continued efforts to reduce corruption are important.

It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with the Republic of Serbia will be held on the 24-month cycle.

Serbia:  Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2024–27 2024 2025 2026 2027 Est. PCI Request Proj. PCI Request Proj. PCI Request Proj. Output Real GDP growth (%) 3.8 4.2 3.0 4.2 4.0 4.5 4.5       Employment       Unemployment rate (labor force survey) (%) 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.3       Prices       Inflation (%), end of period 4.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2       General Government Finances       Revenue (% GDP) 40.9 41.2 40.9 40.9 40.4 40.9 40.1 Expenditure (% GDP) 42.9 44.2 43.9 43.9 43.4 43.9 43.1 Fiscal balance (% GDP) -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 Public debt (% GDP) 47.5 47.7 46.8 46.9 46.5 46.4 46.4       Money and Credit       Broad money, eop (% change) 13.6 8.0 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.8 Credit to the private sector, eop (% change) 1/ 8.5 7.9 9.3 5.7 9.6 9.2 10.5       Balance of Payments       Current account (% GDP) -4.7 -5.1 -5.4 -5.2 -5.6 -5.5 -4.5 FDI (% GDP) 5.6 5.1 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.4 Reserves (months of prospective imports) 7.3 6.6 7.0 6.3 6.5 5.9 6.5 External debt (% GDP) 61.9 60.3 61.3 58.7 59.3 55.9 54.8       Exchange Rate       REER (% change) 2.3 … … … … … …      Sources: Serbian authorities and IMF staff estimates.  1/ Calculated at a constant exchange rate to exclude the valuation effects.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] Under the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the www.imf.org/Serbia page.

[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/30/pr-25228-serbia-imf-concludes-2025-art-iv-consult-completes-1st-rev-policy-coor-instrument

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

June 30, 2025

• The IMF Board today completed the Eighth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine, enabling a disbursement of about US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.37 billion) to Ukraine, which will be channeled for budget support.
• Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and the authorities met all end-March and continuous quantitative performance criteria, the prior action, and two structural benchmarks for the review.
• Despite the challenges, progressing with domestic revenue mobilization, strengthening the investment climate, improving governance, and completing the debt restructuring strategy are necessary to restore fiscal and debt sustainability and support growth. The full and timely disbursement of external support during the program period remains indispensable for macroeconomic stability

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the Eighth Review of the EFF, enabling the authorities to draw US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.37 billion, which will be channeled for budget support. This will bring the total disbursements under the IMF-supported program to US$10.6 billion.

Ukraine’s 48-month EFF, with access of SDR 11.6 billion (equivalent to about US$15.5 billion, or 577 percent of quota), was approved on March 31, 2023, and forms part of an international support package totaling US$152.9 billion in the program’s baseline scenario. Ukraine’s IMF-supported program helps anchor policies that sustain fiscal, external, and macro-financial stability at a time of exceptionally high uncertainty. The EFF aims to support Ukraine’s economic recovery, enhance governance, and strengthen institutions with the aim of promoting long-term growth and investment.

For the Eighth Review, Ukraine met all end-March and continuous quantitative performance criteria as well as the prior action to submit to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine a detailed reform plan for the State Customs Service (SCS). Two structural benchmarks on tax reporting for digital platform operators and publication of the external audit of NABU were also completed. Four new benchmarks were also established, including: measures to update the single project pipeline; preparation of a prioritized roadmap for financial market infrastructure; implementation of international valuation standards; and development of legislative proposals to align securitization and bonds with international standards. The timelines of some other structural benchmarks, including the appointment of the head of the SCS, have been reset by the IMF Executive Board to allow the authorities more time to complete these important reforms. The authorities also requested a rephasing of access to IMF financing over the remainder of 2025 to better align them with Ukraine’s updated balance of payments needs, while the overall size of the program remains unchanged.   

The 2025 growth forecast has been maintained at 2–3 percent as a smaller electricity deficit is offset by lower gas production and weaker agricultural exports. Pressures from Russia’s war will require a supplementary budget for 2025, and the medium-term fiscal path has been revised to better reflect the authorities’ policy intentions on revenue mobilization and expenditure prioritization. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has maintained a tight monetary policy to respond to the still high inflation, while inflation expectations remain anchored. FX reserves remain adequate, sustained by continued sizeable external support. Overall, the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty.

Following the Executive Board discussion on Ukraine, Ms. Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, issued the following statement[1]:

“Russia’s war continues to take a devastating social and economic toll on Ukraine. Nevertheless, macroeconomic stability has been preserved through skillful policymaking as well as substantial external support. The economy has remained resilient, but the war is weighing on the outlook, with growth tempered by labor market strains and damage to energy infrastructure. Risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high and contingency planning is key to enable appropriate policy action should risks materialize.

“The Fund-supported program remains fully financed, with a cumulative external financing envelope of US$153 billion in the baseline scenario and US$165 billion in the downside scenario, over the 4-year program period. This includes the full utilization of the approximately US$50 billion from the G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) initiative. Full, timely, and predictable disbursement of external support—on terms consistent with debt sustainability—remains essential to achieving program objectives.

“The continuing war has necessitated a Supplementary Budget for 2025. Restoring fiscal sustainability and meeting elevated priority expenditures over the medium term will require continued decisive efforts to implement the National Revenue Strategy. This includes modernization of the tax and customs services (including the timely appointment of the customs head), reduction in tax evasion, and harmonization of legislation with EU standards. These reforms, combined with improvements in public investment management frameworks, medium-term budget preparation, and fiscal risk management, are critical to underpinning growth and investment. 

“The authorities continue working to complete their debt restructuring strategy in line with the program’s debt sustainability objectives, which is essential to create room for priority expenditures, reduce fiscal risks, and restore debt sustainability.

“Given still elevated inflation, the tight monetary policy stance is appropriate, and the NBU should stand ready to tighten further should inflation expectations deteriorate. Greater exchange rate flexibility will help strengthen economic resilience while safeguarding reserves.

“The financial sector remains stable, though vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Operational and governance weaknesses in the security markets regulator need to be tackled urgently. Closing gaps in Ukraine’s capital markets infrastructure will be key to attracting foreign private capital for post-war reconstruction.

“Sustained progress in anticorruption and governance reforms remains crucial. The completed audit of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau is an important step; additional efforts are required, including amending the criminal procedures code, appointing the new head of the Economic Security Bureau, and strengthening AML/CFT frameworks.”

Table 1. Ukraine: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2021–27
		2021		2022			2023		2024		2025		2026		2027
		Act.		Act.			Act.		Proj.		Proj.		Proj.		Proj.
Real economy (percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
Nominal GDP (billions of Ukrainian hryvnias) 1/		5,451		5,239			6,628		7,659		8,866		10,192		11,322
Real GDP 1/		3.4		-28.8			5.5		2.9		2-3		4.5		4.8
Contributions:
Domestic demand		12.8		-19.0			11.9		3.8		5.2		3.4		2.7
Private consumption		4.5		-19.0			3.0		4.6		2.8		3.4		2.7
Public consumption		0.1		5.6			3.0		-1.5		0.3		-2.5		-2.0
Investment		8.1		-5.5			5.8		0.6		2.1		2.5		2.0
Net exports		-9.3		-9.8			-6.3		-0.8		-3.2		1.1		2.1
GDP deflator		24.8		34.9			19.9		12.3		13.5		10.0		6.0
Unemployment rate (ILO definition; period average, percent)		9.8		24.5			19.1		13.1		11.6		10.2		9.4
Consumer prices (period average)		9.4		20.2			12.9		6.5		12.6		7.6		5.3
Consumer prices (end of period)		10.0		26.6			5.1		12.0		9.0		7.0		5.0
Nominal wages (average)		20.8		1.0			20.1		23.1		17.4		13.7		10.8
Real wages (average)		10.5		-16.0			6.4		15.6		4.2		5.7		5.3
Savings (percent of GDP)		12.5		17.0			12.8		11.4		4.4		10.0		18.3
Private		12.7		30.2			27.4		23.3		21.4		15.9		18.0
Public		-0.2		-13.1			-14.6		-11.8		-17.1		-5.9		0.3
Investment (percent of GDP)		14.5		12.1			18.1		18.6		20.9		22.6		23.7
Private		10.7		9.6			13.4		13.3		16.6		18.3		18.9
Public		3.8		2.5			4.7		5.4		4.3		4.3		4.9
General Government (percent of GDP)
Fiscal balance 2/		-4.0		-15.6			-19.3		-17.2		-21.3		-10.1		-4.6
Fiscal balance, excl. grants 2/		-4.0		-24.8			-25.8		-23.1		-22.1		-10.4		-5.6
External financing (net)		2.5		10.7			16.2		15.0		24.5		8.9		1.7
Domestic financing (net), of which:		1.5		5.0			3.1		0.3		-3.1		1.3		2.8
NBU		-0.3		7.3			-0.2		-0.2		-0.1		-0.1		-0.1
Commercial banks		1.4		-1.5			2.5		2.9		2.7		0.8		3.4
Public and publicly-guaranteed debt		48.9		77.7			81.2		89.7		108.6		110.4		106.4
Money and credit (end of period, percent change)
Base money		11.2		19.6			23.3		7.7		21.7		13.1		10.4
Broad money		12.0		20.8			23.0		13.4		14.4		13.2		10.4
Credit to nongovernment		8.4		-3.1			-0.5		13.5		10.6		17.7		18.6
Balance of payments (percent of GDP)
Current account balance		-1.9		4.9			-5.3		-7.2		-16.5		-12.6		-5.4
Foreign direct investment		3.8		0.1			2.5		1.8		2.2		4.0		5.0
Gross reserves (end of period, billions of U.S. dollars)		30.9		28.5			40.5		43.8		53.4		52.8		55.6
Months of next year’s imports of goods and services		4.5		3.8			5.3		5.1		6.3		6.3		6.5
Percent of short-term debt (remaining maturity)		74.4		83.3			100.3		130.9		178.9		171.5		172.1
Percent of the IMF composite metric (float)		105.5		110.3			130.2		125.4		125.5		114.0		115.7
Goods exports (annual volume change in percent)		39.0		-37.5			-8.5		16.8		3.0		14.9		14.3
Goods imports (annual volume change in percent)		15.1		-29.7			18.5		6.0		19.3		4.7		5.5
Goods terms of trade (percent change)		-8.4		-11.6			3.6		0.5		1.3		1.0		0.4
Exchange rate
Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (end of period)		27.3		36.6			38.0		42.0		…		…		…
Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (period average)		27.3		32.3			36.6		40.2		…		…		…
Real effective rate (CPI-based, percent change)		2.6		3.2			-6.7		-6.5		…		…		…
Memorandum items:
Per capita GDP / Population (2017): US$2,640 / 44.8 million
Literacy / Poverty rate (2022 est 3/): 100 percent / 25 percent perpercentpercent
Sources: Ukrainian authorities; World Bank, World Development Indicators; and IMF staff estimates.
1/ GDP is compiled as per SNA 2008 and excludes territories that are or were in direct combat zones and temporarily occupied by Russia (consistent with the TMU).
2/ The general government includes the central and local governments and the social funds.
3/ Based on World Bank estimates.

[1] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summing up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/30/pr-25227-ukraine-imf-completes-8th-rev-of-ext-arrang-under-eff

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

June 30, 2025

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

• The near-term prospects for the Algerian economy remain broadly positive despite global uncertainty, but fiscal vulnerabilities are high.
• A gradual yet urgent fiscal adjustment is essential to strengthen fiscal resilience and rebuild buffers, while monetary policy should remain focused on price stability. Greater exchange rate flexibility would strengthen the economy’s ability to absorb external shocks, including from hydrocarbon prices.
• Strengthened policy frameworks, along with reforms to enhance fiscal resilience, diversify the economy, and promote private investment, are critical to lifting growth and creating jobs over the medium-term.

Algiers, Algeria: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Charalambos Tsangarides visited Algiers during June 16–30, to conduct the 2025 Article IV consultation with Algeria.

At the end of the mission, Mr. Tsangarides issued the following statement:

“Economic activity eased to 3.6 percent in 2024 from 4.1 percent in 2023, as OPEC+ production cuts weighed on the hydrocarbons sector, while nonhydrocarbon activity remained strong, expanding by 4.2 percent. The current account balance turned to a deficit in 2024 amid lower hydrocarbon output and gas prices. International reserves remained robust at US$ 67.8 billion, covering about 14 months of imports.

Inflation fell sharply from an average of 9.3 percent in 2023 to 4 percent in 2024, driven mainly by lower food prices, with core inflation also declining. Monetary policy remained accommodative in the first half of 2025. The budget deficit widened significantly in 2024, reaching 13.9 percent of GDP due to lower hydrocarbon revenues and higher wage and investment spending, and is expected to remain high in 2025.

The near-term outlook is broadly positive, supported by a gradual recovery in hydrocarbon production as OPEC+ production cuts ease, which is expected to sustain growth in 2025, while inflation remains moderate. However, growing fiscal pressures pose significant financing challenges and if continued, would increase public debt in the medium term. Continued global uncertainty and volatile hydrocarbon prices are likely to dampen exports and investment, contributing to a wider current account deficit in 2025.

Economic prospects face several risks, primarily from volatile hydrocarbon prices amid shifting trade policies and geopolitical tensions, and persistent fiscal deficits that strain debt sustainability and deepen financial linkages between the government, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and public banks (SOBs). However, medium-term economic prospects would improve with sustained reforms to diversify the economy, and effective implementation of the government’s Action Plan and structural reforms.

To safeguard macro-financial stability and mitigate near-term risks amid a volatile global environment, the mission recommends gradual yet timely fiscal rebalancing. This will curb rising financing needs driven by large deficits and falling hydrocarbon prices, helping to reduce vulnerabilities, rebuild buffers, and stabilize public debt over the medium term. Monetary policy should continue to be guided by economic conditions and firmly focused on its inflation objective, while maintaining close oversight of financial sector developments. More exchange rate flexibility will enhance the economy’s ability to absorb external shocks amid heightened hydrocarbon price volatility and global uncertainty.

Medium-term reform priorities include enhancing fiscal sustainability, strengthening monetary and financial frameworks, and advancing structural reforms to boost private investment, inclusive growth, and job creation.

The fiscal adjustment strategy would be strengthened by reforms to increase nonhydrocarbon revenues and streamline spending. A revised revenue mobilization strategy would support efforts to expand the tax base, including by rationalizing tax expenditures, and enhance compliance via digitalization. Reforming subsidies would help rebuild fiscal buffers and create space for priority expenditures, including targeted support for vulnerable households. Enhancing public investment efficiency would support the authorities’ economic diversification goals. Improving oversight, efficiency, and governance of SOEs would be essential to contain macro-financial risks. The mission welcomes progress in implementing the 2018 Organic Budget Law, which is expected to enhance transparency and accountability in budget execution, the establishment of a unit within the Ministry of Finance to oversee SOEs and strengthen fiscal risk management, and the expected implementation of the new Public Procurement Law.

The mission commends the authorities for their ongoing implementation of the 2023 Monetary and Banking Law, improvements in liquidity management, and strengthened capacity in macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. Clarifying the monetary policy framework—by defining a clear primary objective and nominal anchor—would enhance policy transmission and effectiveness. Improving financial sector oversight is crucial to mitigate risks arising from strong financial linkages between the central government, SOEs, and SOBs.

The authorities’ efforts to diversify the economy and improve the business climate to boost private investment are welcome. Key initiatives include a one-stop digital shop for real estate access, aligning exports with international standards, and advancing online trade. The mission encourages continuing these reforms but cautions against broad application of fiscal incentives that may create revenue gaps. Additional gains can be achieved by removing administrative restrictions, increasing flexibility in product and labor markets, and ensuring a level playing field between public and private sectors. The mission also welcomes recent governance reforms and continued efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework and enhance transparency and accountability in the public sector.”

“The mission expresses its gratitude and appreciation to the authorities and all interlocutors for their warm hospitality and the open and constructive discussions.”

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/30/pr-25226-algeria-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission

MIL OSI