Category: Russia

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Rosneft plans work based on oil price of $45 in 2025 and $42-43 in 2026 – Sechin

Source: Rosneft – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

The energy panel organized by Rosneft at SPIEF ended with the traditional oil price forecast from its participants. This year, the Company’s CEO Igor Sechin and Nobuo Tanaka, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Japanese government’s non-profit Low Carbon Technology Initiative, presented their vision of future developments.

Prof. Tanaka recalled that a year earlier the Energy Panel participants predicted an oil price of $60 per barrel. “This year I am afraid that the price may exceed 100 dollars due to the crisis that is currently taking place in the Middle East,” – said the Japanese expert, who headed the International Energy Agency in 2007-2011.

In turn, the CEO of Rosneft responded to this by saying: “Whatever it (oil price – ed.) is, it is difficult for us to guess what will happen. Nobody knows. As Machiavelli once said, “The power of authority lies in its secrecy”.

At the same time, Igor Sechin named the price that the Company has set in its business plan for 2025 and 2026: “We do not know what geopolitical factors will affect the market. But whatever they are, our company Rosneft puts 45 dollars in its business plan for this year and 42-43 dollars for the next year. We do not want to depend on this volatility,” he said.

Department of Information and Advertising
Rosneft Oil Company
June 21, 2025

Please note; this information is the raw content received directly from the information source. This is exactly what the source claims and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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Global Energy Balance: Heads of Major Energy Companies, Experts Discuss Future of Energy Sector at SPIEF

Source: Rosneft – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

At the Energy Panel of the XXVIII St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, leading industry experts, politicians, scientists, government officials and heads of major international energy companies discussed current trends in the global energy market.

Their assessments and forecasts largely coincided with the visionary concept of industry development presented by Igor Sechin, Head of Rosneft. In his report “Odyssey of the Global Economy in Search of the Golden Fleece. The New Landscape a of the Global Energy Industry”, he announced that the current state of the global energy industry is at the stage of formation of a new image due to the multiple growth of electricity consumption, the generation of which will be provided by both fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. According to him, the optimal solution today is “synthesis of conventional and alternative energy sources”.

The event, organized with the support of Rosneft, was addressed by Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada, Chairman of the Rosneft Board of Directors, Delcy Rodriguez, Executive Vice President of the Republic of Venezuela, Simon Aloysius Mantiri, Chief Executive Officer of Pertamina, Zhang Daowei, Vice President of CNPC, Shiva Prasad Panda Madhusudana, Executive Director of Reliance Industries, Alexander Dynkin, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov, Minister of Energy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Nobuo Tanaka, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Japanese government’s non-profit Low Carbon Technology Initiative, and David Gadzhimirzaev, President of TOFS.

ENERGY TRANSITION WITHOUT TRANSITION

Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada opened the discussion of Igor Sechin’s report, noting the depth of his analysis. “It was comprehensive – the way you showed that progress and energy are inseparable,” Al-Sada addressed Sechin.

The head of Rosneft’s Board of Directors drew the audience’s attention to the fact that despite the active promotion of the idea of transition to RES, the share of fossil energy sources in the energy mix has not changed in recent decades. He recalled that Igor Sechin mentioned in the report that fossil fuels account for 80% of the global energy mix. “And this statistic has not changed for the last 20 years! We are fluttering around these 80% fossil fuels and energy sources, and so not much has changed!” exclaimed Al-Sada, describing the situation in the global energy sector.

“In other words, we are essentially not making any transition away from hydrocarbons,” he concluded, emphasizing that the transition to renewables is being imposed on the industry and the public.

“I would also like to take as a baton from Mr. Sechin, and pass my comment to you. It’s like food for thought: are we actually transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable fuels?“,” Al-Sada addressed the audience.

The Rosneft Chairman also noted that energy demand does not always coincide with production growth for various reasons.

“I would like to express two small thoughts in order to further enhance the valuable things we heard in Mr. Sechin’s words. <...> Lack of investment is already a reality in the hydrocarbon and energy sectors. This is something that could really bring us to a serious energy shortage. “If this trend continues we could face an energy shortage. This is not only my personal opinion, but also what a large number of analysts, including the International Energy Agency, and other respected experts, who in their reviews have emphasized the importance of having sufficient investment in the hydrocarbon sector. Otherwise, we will face the risk of a primary energy shortage!”, emphasized Al-Sada.

FUTURE FOR SYNERGY

Zhang Daowei, Vice President of China’s CNPC, remarked on the interest in the report by Rosneft’s CEO. In his speech, the top manager of the Chinese company expressed similar assessments of the ways of development of the global energy sector – in particular, the need for synergy between traditional and new energy sources.

“We have always believed that in the context of the energy transition course, it is necessary to adhere to synergetic, integrated development of traditional and new energy sources, to take full account of the characteristics and degree of development of our countries’ markets, to properly link energy transition with energy security, and to promote a fair and sustainable model of energy transformation,” Daowei said.

According to the vice president, under this philosophy, CNPC, on the one hand, continues to increase the exploration and development of oil and gas fields domestically and import high-quality resources from abroad, including strengthening long-term cooperation with Russia in the field of hydrocarbon trade. On the other hand, CNPC is actively pursuing a green, low-carbon development strategy and realizing the development of a “three-step strategy” combining oil and gas projects with wind, solar, geothermal, hydrogen and carbon capture technologies.

Simon Aloysius Mantiri, President and CEO of Pertamina Indonesia, said that the company is pursuing a dual growth strategy that is based on both conventional resources and low-carbon solutions. Meanwhile, natural gas plays an important role in the country’s energy mix.

“Natural gas is at the center of our strategy to transition to cleaner fuels. And today we are expanding our LNG capacity and capability for both domestic and export needs,” he said.

The Pertamina chief virtually reiterated the point made in Igor Sechin’s report and emphasized that by achieving a balance of energy sources and a comprehensive approach, the company is able to ensure high economic growth and carbon neutrality in parallel.

Reliance Industries CEO P.M.S. Prasad said India does not choose between energy access and innovation. “It is integrating both. By developing scalable, context-specific solutions, it is addressing local priorities while making a significant contribution to global sustainability. From rural microgrids to energy efficient data centers, India is turning its potential into a strategic asset,” Prasad said.

He emphasized that international partnerships play a vital role in this ambitious effort. “Energy remains a key cornerstone of the strategic relationship between India and Russia. India values this trusted partnership and appreciates the cooperation forged over decades. The leadership of both countries is committed to take this partnership to an even higher bar in the future,” summarized Reliance Industries’ CEO.

NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ARE NOT BEING WRITTEN OFF

Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, in his keynote speech at the Energy Panel, noted the growing interest in nuclear power generation worldwide and, accordingly, the growth of investments in this area. According to him, this is happening against the backdrop of growing energy consumption and in future nuclear power will be in demand along with fossil sources and renewable energy sources.

Reliance Industries CEO Panda Madhusudana Shiva Prasad, in turn, speaking on India’s energy outlook, emphasized the significant role of nuclear power generation.

“Gas, renewables supported by energy storage systems and a robust transmission grid, and nuclear power will play a key role. India’s bold nuclear program, including small modular reactors, reflects its commitment to long-term energy security and decarbonization,” Prasad said.

The renewed interest in investments in NPP construction was noted in the speech of Uzbek Minister of Energy Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov. He spoke about joint plans with Russia to build two units of 55 megawatts each, and two units of VWR type reactors – water-water power reactor. The head of the ministry also said that gas-fired power plants are being installed in the country, hydropower is being developed, the share of renewable sources is increasing, and storage systems are being created at the same time.

The Minister noted the substantial nature of Igor Sechin’s report, which contains a detailed analysis and reflects all trends in the development of global energy, science and economy.

ENERGY SECURITY IN FIRST PLACE

Delcy Rodriguez, Executive Vice President of the Republic of Venezuela, in her speech supported the thesis expressed by the head of Rosneft that energy security issues should come first.

“We always advocate that the energy transition be carried out responsibly, taking into account reality, to avoid abrupt changes that could jeopardize energy security,” Rodriguez said.

Venezuela’s Executive Vice President named the main components of a stable energy system of the future: energy security, reliable supply, accessibility for all, while respecting nature – with minimal environmental impact.

Among the main threats to energy security, Rodriguez named illegal sanctions against producing countries and the hegemony of the dollar.

Nobuo Tanaka, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Japanese government’s non-profit Low Carbon Technology Initiative, said the answer to energy security is always to diversify supply sources, improve energy efficiency and seek alternative energy sources, including renewable energy, nuclear energy and regulate the market with predictable policies.

AGAINST LOGIC

The panelists drew attention to the political events of recent decades and stated that geopolitics is now shaping the direction of economic cooperation. And often against the logic of market expediency and economic efficiency.

Tanaka recalled how he discussed Germany’s energy policy with Chancellor Merkel in 2009: “I asked her why Germany does not use nuclear power. She answered like this: Mr. Tanaka, I am a scientist, I know how important it is to use nuclear power, but in order to use it in Germany, she said, give me votes in exchange. Yes, she’s a good scientist, but she’s also a very smart politician.”

The professor is sure that despite her experience Merkel made a very serious mistake by changing the policy on the use of nuclear power plants under the pressure of public opinion. Another mistake was the refusal to use Russian energy carriers and Russian natural gas. “I think she was misled,” Tanaka said.

“Geopolitics is a factor of the 21st century global economy. It is geopolitical interests that brought the BRICS countries together.  The criterion for membership is not to use sanctions against other members of the organization. But geopolitics has also become a kind of “trap” for Germany after Trump’s victory,” said Alexander Dynkin, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

He noted that the European bureaucrats are concerned about the complete refusal of energy supplies from Russia by 2027. “They are not stopped by the growth of costs, undermining the competitiveness of the EU,” – said Dynkin and recalled that if in 2014, the U.S. GDP was ahead of the EU GDP. US GDP was only 12% ahead of EU GDP, last year the US economy was already 50% larger than the European one.

“Although the German energy crisis is formally over, the country paid for it with three years of stagnation, deindustrialization, inflation, and migration crisis,” said the RAS academy member.

DIGITAL REVOLUTION

The thesis in Igor Sechin’s report that the digital revolution opens a new era in the development of the oil and gas industry was warmly echoed by the audience. In particular, David Gadzhimirzaev, General Director of TOFS Oilfield Services Group, thanked Rosneft for supporting innovation and technology development. He emphasized the importance of ensuring the availability, stability and reliability of resources, which is exactly what new technologies can provide, which will reduce the cost of bringing barrels to the surface.

“We all know that just this year the Energy Strategy-2050 was approved, which includes the fact that by 2050 about 70% of the Russian Federation’s production will be from hard-to-recover reserves. Therefore, we are not only working on expertise, but also working on the production of new technologies,” Gadzhimirzaev said.

Department of Information and Advertising
Rosneft Oil Company
June 21, 2025

Please note; this information is the raw content received directly from the information source. This is exactly what the source claims and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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Rosneft CEO on Western Sanctions: “Victory Will Be Ours!”

Source: Rosneft – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin is confident that Russia and its economy will successfully overcome the unprecedented external pressure.

“Despite the fact that our dream of an open global economy, of unshakable laws, protecting the inviolability of property and contractual obligations, of equal legal guarantees for all turned out to be an illusion, despite the historically unprecedented external pressure, we repeat the great words that were pronounced in June of 1941 and have since become a symbol of the insuperable spirit of our people: “Our cause is right! The enemy will be destroyed, the victory will be ours!”!” said the CEO of Rosneft, speaking at the Energy Panel at the XXVIII St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Rosneft CEO, concluding his report “Odyssey Of the Global Economy in Search Of the Golden Fleece. The New Landscape Of Global Energy” reminded the participants of the Energy Panel that having extracted the fleece, the Argonauts returned to Greece, but did not find happiness.

“But what is the meaning of the myth, if evil is followed only by evil, and good intentions turn into their opposite? Perhaps the meaning is that the Golden Fleece, obtained by criminal means, does not bring happiness, and evil always begets evil. The miracle will not happen,” Igor Sechin concluded.

Department of Information and Advertising
Rosneft Oil Company
June 21, 2025

Please note; this information is the raw content received directly from the information source. This is exactly what the source claims and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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Sechin Advocates Increasing Dividend Payments in Favor of the Russian Federation to Reduce Budget Risks

Source: Rosneft – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin suggested that Russian banks with state participation should increase dividend payments in favor of the state, which would reduce budget risks, allow the authorities to consider easing fiscal regimes for producers and become an incentive for the country’s development.

“The banking system is stable due to the relatively low tax burden and increased yield of federal loan bonds, which allows it to operate with high efficiency. But we expect an increase in its contribution not only to the budget, but also to the country’s economy. As a minimum, increasing dividend payments in favor of the state would be reasonable and appropriate and would reduce budget risks and allow for considering the mitigation of fiscal regime for producers and become a stimulus for the country development,” Igor Sechin said, speaking at the Energy Panel within the framework of the XXVIII St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

The CEO of Rosneft reminded that for more than three years the Russian economy has been under unprecedented sanctions pressure. “However, despite numerous negative forecasts, it has been able to assert its viability during this period. In the last two years, Russia’s GDP growth rate has exceeded the global average,” he emphasized.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the federal budget remains balanced and the level of government debt is stable and under control, Igor Sechin said.

Department of Information and Advertising
Rosneft Oil Company
June 21, 2025

Please note; this information is the raw content received directly from the information source. This is exactly what the source claims and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission with Nigeria

Source: IMF – News in Russian

July 2, 2025

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Nigeria.1

The Nigerian authorities have implemented major reforms over the past two years which have improved macroeconomic stability and enhanced resilience. The authorities have removed costly fuel subsidies, stopped monetary financing of the fiscal deficit and improved the functioning of the foreign exchange market. Investor confidence has strengthened, helping Nigeria successfully tap the Eurobond market and leading to a resumption of portfolio inflows. At the same time, poverty and food insecurity have risen, and the government is now focused on raising growth.

Growth accelerated to 3.4 percent in 2024, driven mainly by increased hydrocarbon output and vibrant services sector. Agriculture remained subdued, owing to security challenges and sliding productivity. Real GDP is expected to expand by 3.4 percent in 2025, supported by the new domestic refinery, higher oil production and robust services. Against a complex and uncertain external environment, medium-term growth is projected to hover around 3½ percent, supported by domestic reform gains.

Gross and net international reserves increased in 2024, with a strong current account surplus and improved portfolio inflows. Reforms to the fx market and foreign exchange interventions have brought stability to the naira.

Naira stabilization and improvements in food production brought inflation to 23.7 percent year-on-year in April 2025 from 31 percent annual average in 2024 in the backcasted rebased CPI index released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. Inflation should decline further in the medium-term with continued tight macroeconomic policies and a projected easing of retail fuel prices.

Fiscal performance improved in 2024. Revenues benefited from naira depreciation, enhanced revenue administration and higher grants, which more-than-offset rising interest and overheads spending.

Downside risks have increased with heightened global uncertainty. A further decline in oil prices or increase in financing costs would adversely affect growth, fiscal and external positions, undermine financial stability and exacerbate exchange rate pressures. A deterioration of security could impact growth and food insecurity.

Executive Board Assessment2

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended the authorities on the successful implementation of significant reforms during the past two years and welcomed the associated gains in macroeconomic stability and resilience. As these gains have yet to benefit all Nigerians, and with heightened economic uncertainty and significant downside risks, Directors emphasized the importance of agile policy making to safeguard and enhance macroeconomic stability, creating enabling conditions to boost growth, and reducing poverty.

Directors agreed that the Central Bank of Nigeria is appropriately maintaining a tight monetary policy stance, which should continue until disinflation becomes entrenched. They welcomed the discontinuation of deficit monetization and ongoing efforts to strengthen central bank governance to set the institutional foundation for inflation targeting. Directors also welcomed steps taken by the authorities to build reserves and support market confidence and praised reforms to the foreign exchange market that supported price discovery and liquidity. They called for implementation of a robust foreign exchange intervention framework focused on containing excess volatility, stressing that the exchange rate is an important shock absorber. Directors also agreed with staff’s call to phase out existing capital flow management measures in a properly timed and sequenced manner.

Directors called for a neutral fiscal stance to safeguard macroeconomic stabilization with priority given to investments that enhance growth. Directors also called for accelerating the delivery of cash transfers to assist the poor. They commended the authorities on advancing the tax reform bill, an important step towards enhancing revenue mobilization and creating fiscal space for development spending, while preserving debt sustainability.

Directors recognized actions to strengthen the banking system, including the ongoing process of increasing banks’ minimum capital. They welcomed the authorities’ efforts to boost financial inclusion and promote capital market development, while emphasizing the importance of moving to a robust risk‑based supervision for mortgage and consumer lending schemes as well as the fintech and crypto sectors. Directors welcomed progress made in strengthening the AML/CFT framework and stressed the importance of resolving remaining weaknesses to exit the FATF grey list.

To lift Nigeria’s growth outlook, improve food security, and reduce fragility, Directors highlighted the importance of tackling security, red tape, agricultural productivity, infrastructure gaps, including boosting electricity supply, as well as improved health and education spending, and making the economy more resilient to climate events. They noted that addressing structural impediments to private credit extension is also needed to support growth. Directors welcomed the IMF’s capacity development to support authorities’ reform efforts and agreed that enhancing data quality is critical for sound, data‑driven policymaking.

Table 1. Nigeria: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2023–26

2023

2024

2025

2026

5/8/2025 13:03

Act.

Est.

Proj.

Proj.

 National income and prices

Annual percentage change

(unless otherwise specified)

Real GDP (at 2010 market prices)

2.9

3.4

3.4

3.2

Oil GDP

-2.2

5.5

4.9

2.3

Non-oil GDP

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

Non-oil non-agriculture GDP

3.9

4.1

3.7

3.7

Production of crude oil (million barrels per day)

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.7

Nominal GDP at market prices (trillions of naira)

234

277

320

367

Nominal non-oil GDP (trillions of naira)

221

260

303

351

Nominal GDP per capita (US$)

1,597

806

836

887

GDP deflator

12.6

14.5

11.4

11.4

Consumer price index (annual average)

24.7

31.4

24.0

23.0

Consumer price index (end of period)

28.9

15.4

23.0

18.0

Investment and savings

Percent of GDP

Gross national savings

31.8

39.6

37.5

37.7

Public

-0.1

3.9

2.2

1.7

Private

31.9

35.7

35.3

36.1

Investment

30.0

30.4

30.5

33.1

Public

3.2

4.8

5.4

5.5

Private

26.8

25.6

25.1

27.6

Consolidated government operations

Percent of GDP

Total revenues and grants

9.8

14.4

14.2

13.8

Of which: oil and gas revenue

3.3

4.1

5.1

4.9

Of which: non-oil revenue

5.8

9.2

8.8

8.8

Total expenditure and net lending

13.9

17.1

18.9

18.7

Overall balance

-4.2

-2.6

-4.7

-4.9

Non-oil primary balance

-4.9

-4.9

-7.2

-6.9

Public gross debt1

48.7

52.9

52.0

50.8

Of which: FX denominated debt

18.1

25.5

25.8

24.8

FGN interest payments (percent of FGN revenue)

83.8

41.1

47.3

49.2

Money and credit

Contribution to broad money growth
(unless otherwise specified)

Broad money (percent change; end of period)

51.9

42.7

17.9

22.3

Net foreign assets

10.5

30.4

2.1

7.2

Net domestic assets

41.3

12.3

15.8

15.1

     Of which: Claims on consolidated government

20.1

-11.9

6.2

4.1

Credit to the private sector (y/y, percent)

53.6

30.1

17.9

18.2

Velocity of broad money (ratio; end of period)

2.7

3.3

2.2

2.1

External sector

Annual percentage change

(unless otherwise specified)

Current account balance (percent of GDP)

1.8

9.2

7.0

4.6

Exports of goods and services

-12.8

-4.5

-6.0

1.3

Imports of goods and services

-4.4

-0.8

-6.8

8.4

Terms of trade

-6.1

-0.6

-7.4

-3.3

Price of Nigerian oil (US$ per barrel)

82.3

79.9

67.7

63.3

External debt outstanding (US$ billions)2

102.9

102.2

105.9

110.2

Gross international reserves (US$ billions, CBN definition)3

33.2

40.2

36.4

39.1

Equivalent months of prospective imports of G&S

5.4

5.7

7.5

7.7

Memorandum items:

  Implicit fuel subsidy (percent of GDP)

0.8

2.1

0.0

0.0

Sources: Nigerian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

1 Gross debt figures for the Federal Government and the public sector include overdrafts from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

                                        

2 Includes both public and private sector.

                                        

3 Based on the IMF definition, the gross international reserves were US$8 billion

 lower in December 2024.
                                                           

1 Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. Staff hold separate annual discussions with the regional institutions responsible for common policies in four currency unions—the Euro Area, the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union, the Central African Economic and Monetary Union, and the West African Economic and Monetary Union. For each of the currency unions, staff teams visit the regional institutions responsible for common policies in the currency union, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the currency union’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis of discussion by the Executive Board. Both staff’s discussions with the regional institutions and the Board discussion of the annual staff report will be considered an integral part of the Article IV consultation with each member.

2 At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm. The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Julie Ziegler

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/07/01/pr-25231-nigeria-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission

MIL OSI

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IMF Staff Complete 2025 Article IV Mission to Timor-Leste

Source: IMF – News in Russian

July 2, 2025

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

  • Timor-Leste’s growth is expected to remain robust at 3.9 percent in 2025, supported by fiscal expansion and strong credit growth. Inflation has fallen sharply but is expected to increase moderately in the remainder of 2025.
  • To support growth and macroeconomic stability, Timor-Leste’s substantial savings in the Petroleum Fund should be spent better and more prudently. This would deliver higher living standards and preserve fiscal sustainability.
  • The implementation of financial and fiscal reforms would accelerate private sector development and make public expenditure more efficient.

Washington, DC – July 2, 2025: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Yan Carrière-Swallow visited Dili during June 19-July 2 to conduct discussions for the 2025 Article IV consultation with Timor-Leste. At the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Carrière-Swallow issued the following statement:

“Timor-Leste’s financial buffers and favorable demographics provide an opportunity to develop its economy. Despite impressive progress since independence, the economy remains under-diversified, and fiscal and external imbalances are large. We welcome Timor-Leste’s efforts for greater economic integration in the global and regional economies through World Trade Organization (WTO) membership and prospective ASEAN accession, which will boost growth and is providing a positive impulse to the government’s reform agenda.

“Growth is expected to remain robust at 3.9 percent in 2025, supported by fiscal expansion and strong credit growth, and to moderate to 3.3 percent in 2026. Inflation, which had fallen sharply last year as global food and energy prices declined but is expected to increase moderately as global food prices rise. Inflation is expected to average 0.9 percent in 2025 and to rise to 1.8 percent in 2026. Risks to the outlook are balanced.

“The 2026 budget should prioritize high-quality spending on physical and human capital, including health and education, while containing recurrent expenditure. The government is rightly focused on identifying measures to contain the public sector wage bill, which has grown sharply in recent years, and on implementing a Value Added Tax by January 2027.

“Absent further reforms, deficits are projected to remain large over the medium term, which would lead to a full depletion of the Petroleum Fund by the end of the 2030s. We recommend a 10-year reform agenda of structural and fiscal reforms, allowing the Timorese government to support private sector development while gradually reducing fiscal deficits to preserve debt sustainability. For 2026, our proposed reforms would be consistent with an expenditure envelope of around US$1.85 billion for central government.

“We welcome continued progress in the government’s financial sector reforms—including an insolvency framework, a secure transactions law, development of corporate accounting standards, and a new law on banking activities—whose implementation would support private sector development. We also recommend accelerating the issuance of land titles and establishing a national digital ID system, which are crucial reforms to boost access to credit, diversify the private sector, and improve the efficiency of public spending.

“The team had fruitful discussions with Minister of Finance Santina Cardoso, Central Bank Governor Hélder Lopes, other senior officials, the private sector, civil society, and development partners. On behalf of the IMF team, I would like to thank the Timorese authorities for their hospitality and excellent cooperation. The IMF stands ready to continue providing capacity development to assist the government’s operations and reform efforts.”

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Pemba Sherpa

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/07/02/pr25232-imf-staff-complete-2025-article-iv-mission-to-timor-leste

MIL OSI

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IMF Staff Completes Governance Diagnostic Mission to Kenya

Source: IMF – News in Russian

July 1, 2025

Washington, DC: At the request of the Kenyan authorities, an IMF Technical Assistance mission led by Rebecca A. Sparkman visited Kenya from June 16-30, 2025, to conduct a Governance Diagnostic. This mission followed the scoping mission held on March 3-5, 2025.

The Governance Diagnostic aims to identify macro-economically critical governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities, and design an action plan with specific, sequenced recommendations and reform priorities.

Reflecting the breadth of the Governance Diagnostic exercise, the visiting team comprised staff from a number of IMF departments, including the Fiscal Affairs; Legal; Finance; Monetary and Capital Markets; and Strategy, Policy and Review Departments, as well as World Bank staff. They engaged with the government and non-governmental stakeholders to examine governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities across core state functions as provided by the IMF’s 2018 framework for Enhanced Engagement on Governance.

To this end, the mission team met with Kenyan authorities, including those responsible for public financial management (including procurement), expenditure policy, tax policy, revenue administration, the mining sector, market regulation, rule of law, Central Bank governance and operations, financial sector oversight, and Anti-Money Laundering/Combatting the Financing of Terrorism. Throughout the mission, the team engaged with Kenya’s anti-corruption and oversight institutions to discuss the effectiveness of legal and institutional frameworks in reducing macro-economically critical corruption vulnerabilities. The mission also met members of Kenya’s National Assembly.

Additionally, the mission met with representatives from civil society, the private sector, business associations, and international development partners to gather perspectives on governance challenges and anti-corruption efforts.

The IMF team would like to thank the Kenyan authorities and other stakeholders for their hospitality, excellent cooperation, and candid and constructive discussions.

Collaboration on the Governance Diagnostic will continue over the next several months. A draft report, which will set out the findings and propose a sequenced, prioritized reform plan, is expected to be shared with the authorities for review and additional input before end of 2025.

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Pavis Devahasadin

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/07/02/pr25233-kenya-imf-staff-completes-governance-diagnostic-mission-to-kenya

MIL OSI

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Bosnia and Herzegovina: Staff Concluding Statement for the 2025 Article IV Consultation Mission

Source: IMF – News in Russian

July 1, 2025

A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

Sarajevo:

Growth has proven resilient supported by expansionary fiscal policies, but inflation has picked up, and risks are elevated due to external shocks and domestic political tensions. Progress towards EU accession could boost confidence, but political hurdles persist. Fiscal policy should focus on restoring buffers and improving spending quality. The authorities should refrain from further discretionary measures that widen the deficit and strengthen contingency planning. Both entities face large financing needs that are expected to be met through external borrowing, with a Eurobond issuance in FBiH and bilateral loans in the RS, along with some domestic issuances. The authorities should prepare contingency plans in case of financing shortfalls. Reforms, including a review of public employment, wages, and social benefits are needed to achieve a debt-stabilizing primary balance.

To safeguard monetary stability, it is essential to maintain the currency board and uphold the independence of the central bank. The authorities should continue to closely monitor financial sector risks and enhance crisis preparedness. The establishment of a country-wide financial stability fund, which would facilitate bank restructuring and provide liquidity on an exceptional basis, would substantially strengthen the financial safety net. To accelerate growth, the authorities need to speed up reforms to improve fiscal governance, protect financial integrity, fight corruption, and step up digitalization. Transitioning from coal to green energy along with preparing for the introduction of EU carbon taxes are major challenges ahead. Placing BiH on a higher growth path and providing its people with more opportunities will speed up income convergence with the EU and reduce emigration.

Recent developments and outlook

Despite a challenging environment, the economy has been resilient. Growth accelerated to 2.5 percent in 2024 from 2 percent in 2023, with strong domestic demand outweighing a decline in net exports. Household consumption was supported by strong growth in credit and remittances; private investment accelerated. The unemployment rate declined to 11.7 percent in Q4:2024, with real wages growing at an annual rate of 8 percent. The current account deficit widened to 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024 from 2¼ percent in 2023, reflecting a drought-induced decline in electricity exports, weaker demand for exports, and higher imports associated with strong domestic demand. Inflation fell to 1.7 percent in 2024 from 6¼ percent in 2023, owing to a slowdown in fuel and utilities prices. However, since end-2024, inflation has been rising again to 3.7 percent (yoy) in May, driven mainly by higher food prices.

The economic outlook remains uncertain amid elevated downside risks. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2025 supported by an improvement in net exports, a stronger fiscal impulse, and private consumption. However, the outlook is vulnerable to both domestic and external shocks. A worsening in geopolitical tensions and a resulting slowdown in Europe, or increased commodity price volatility could raise food and energy prices, lower BiH exports and remittances, and dampen domestic demand. An escalation of political tensions could further increase economic fragmentation and weigh on investor confidence and growth. In the absence of faster reform progress, medium-term growth is expected to remain around 3 percent—insufficient for rapid income convergence with the EU. Inflation is expected to remain elevated during 2025, and as food inflation eases, gradually decline from 2026, approaching the ECB target of 2 percent.  

Fiscal policy and reforms

Fiscal performance in 2024 was stronger than expected. The general government deficit turned out to be 1¾ percent of GDP, the same as in 2023, but better than anticipated at the time of the 2024 AIV Consultation. The authorities leveraged a large increase in tax revenues to boost spending on wages, goods and services, social benefits, and public investments.

With fiscal policy expected to ease in 2025, the authorities should avoid further discretionary measures and strengthen contingency planning. Entity budgets and subsequently-adopted measures envisage increases in public wages and pensions, reflecting both legally-mandated indexation and discretionary changes. The widening deficit, which could reach 2.6 percent of GDP, is expected to be mainly financed mostly through foreign borrowing, as well as domestic banks. The authorities should avoid policies that further expand the deficit as this would likely put upward pressure on rising prices and widen external imbalances. Moreover, given mounting downside risks, the authorities should aim to build cash buffers and develop contingency plans. Depending on the severity of a potential shock the authorities should use the available buffers and activate contingency plans.

Over the medium term, the authorities are advised to place fiscal deficits on a firmly declining path starting from 2026, build fiscal buffers, and enhance the economy’s growth potential. Persistently high deficits risk placing public debt on an upward trajectory and may worsen financing terms. Fiscal consolidation should begin in 2026, with the goal of reducing the primary deficit to its debt-stabilizing level, while improving the quality of spending and rebuilding treasury balances. Priority should be given to spending measures that enhance efficiency—particularly by rationalizing the public wage bill through functional reviews and improving the targeting of social assistance programs. These measures should be complemented by revenue mobilization efforts, including broadening the tax base through the reduction of exemptions and development of new revenue sources, such as taxing dividends. Any fiscally costly policies should be strictly avoided or offset. Given significant infrastructure gaps, increasing both the level and quality of public investment should be a key objective.

Fiscal consolidation efforts should be accompanied by institutional and structural fiscal reforms. Strengthening fiscal discipline will require a review of existing fiscal rules to assess whether they are appropriately designed to meet macroeconomic management and developmental needs and whether there are sufficient institutional arrangements in place to ensure that they are met. The recent materialization of contingent liabilities related to international arbitration cases underscores the urgency of enhancing fiscal risk management. This includes timely identification of all sources of fiscal risks, assessment of risk magnitude and likelihood, development of mitigation strategies, and reinforcement of the institutional framework. In this context, improving the oversight and governance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is crucial. Reducing inefficiencies in public investment management remains a priority. This involves better project selection, rigorous appraisal processes, efficient and transparency procurement, and stronger portfolio management and oversight. Finally, implementing robust beneficiary registries would improve the targeting of social assistance programs by reducing inclusion and exclusion errors, improving efficiency, and enhancing transparency and accountability.

Currency board arrangement and financial sector policies and reforms

For three decades, the currency board arrangement (CBA) has been a cornerstone of macroeconomic stability and must be preserved. The CBA has ensured the stability of the domestic currency, while reinforcing policy credibility and fiscal discipline. Benefiting from strong institutional independence, the Central Bank (CBBH), has consistently maintained net foreign exchange reserves well above the level of its monetary liabilities. Safeguarding the CBBH’s independence is critical to preserving the credibility and effectiveness of the CBA.

The CBBH should further strengthen the reserve requirement framework. In line with IMF advice, the CBBH applies differentiated remuneration rates on reserve requirements for foreign and domestic currency liabilities. Falling euro area interest rates offer an opportunity to reduce the gap with CBBH remuneration rates on required reserves and the opportunity costs for holding reserves. A further comprehensive review of the reserve requirement framework, with technical assistance from the IMF, and implementation of previous recommendations would further strengthen the CBBH’s capacity to achieve its policy objectives.  

Sustained strong credit growth calls for close monitoring of systemic risks and continued efforts to safeguard banking sector resilience. Credit expansion has been driven by rising wages, declining lending rates, and a booming real estate market. Despite this rapid growth, banks remain well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, while the share of non-performing loans continues to decline. Nonetheless, vigilance is warranted. The authorities should closely monitor financial sector developments and be prepared to deploy macroprudential tools to address risks from credit growth and rising real estate prices. Following introduction of additional capital buffers for systemic risk (SyRB) and domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), the macroprudential toolkit should be expanded to include a countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and borrower-based measures such as limits on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and debt-service to income (DSTI) ratios. To preserve resilience, reducing the regulatory capital requirement from 12 to 10 percent as planned from end-2026 should be avoided. The authorities are also advised to avoid further extensions of temporary regulatory measures that aim to contain lending rate increases and to remove limits on bank exposures to foreign governments and central banks.

Progress made on coordination on financial sector issues, under the leadership of the CBBH, should be maintained. Regular financial sector coordination meetings strengthen inter-agency cooperation and help ensure smooth information exchange. Additionally, the authorities are encouraged to establish a country-wide Financial Stability Fund to support orderly bank resolution and to cooperate across state-level institutions and both entities to request a new IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)—already requested by the CBBH—to comprehensively assess resilience and outline a roadmap for further reform, including in the context of EU accession.

We commend the CBBH and the other relevant authorities for their strong efforts to integrate BiH with the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). SEPA integration will enable faster and more convenient euro payments across borders within the SEPA area, lower transaction costs, and foster deeper trade and economic integration within Europe. It is crucial that the relevant legislative amendments are adopted in a timely manner to pave the way for the submission of the application for SEPA membership. In addition, the development of the TIPS Clone—the project implemented by the CBBH in cooperation with the Bank of Italy—will provide infrastructure for instant payments.

Structural reforms

Advancing toward EU membership will require a stronger, more coordinated, and results-driven approach. Persistent political fragmentation, lack of consensus among governing bodies, and limited administrative capacity continue to obstruct the adoption and execution of key reforms. In this context, timely adoption and implementation of the EU Growth Plan offers a valuable opportunity. Reforms under the growth plan will align BiH more closely with the EU single market, advance EU accession, and unlock €1 billion in additional financing over 2025–27 period.

The authorities should accelerate energy sector reforms to reduce fiscal risks and prepare for implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Key reforms include phasing out electricity subsidies over the medium term—while protecting vulnerable households—and advancing efficiency improvements in energy SOEs. CBAM charges are set to take effect from 2026, with the largest anticipated impact on the BiH electricity sector. To mitigate this, it is essential to establish a domestic power exchange system and an agreed roadmap and legislative framework for introduction of carbon pricing at the state level. These steps would enable BiH to unlock new investment in renewable electricity generation, reducing the overall burden of CBAM. Implementation of carbon pricing will allow BiH to retain carbon-related revenues domestically and potentially secure a CBAM exemption for electricity exports to the EU.

Reforms that tackle the labor market, governance, and digitalization are also crucial. The authorities should take a structured approach to minimum wage increases that avoids high, frequent, and ad hoc adjustments. Complementary reforms are needed to address low labor market participation (particularly among women) and high youth unemployment. The authorities should urgently implement MONEYVAL priority actions to avoid being grey listed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in early 2026. Grey listing could impose significant economic costs through reduced investment, delays in international payments, and increased transaction costs. Finally, developing digital identity and trust services, and providing government e-services, would strengthen the business environment.

*   *   *   *   *

The mission thanks the authorities and all other counterparts for their hospitality and for the constructive and insightful discussions in Sarajevo and Banja Luka.

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Camila Perez

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/07/01/cs-070125-bosnia-and-herzegovina-staff-concluding-statement-for-2025-aiv-consultation-mission

MIL OSI

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Seychelles’ Path to Macroeconomic Stability and Resilience

Source: IMF – News in Russian

Comprehensive reforms have fueled Seychelles’ journey out of crisis and its continued resilience in the face of shocks

Seychelles—a nation of 115 islands in the Indian Ocean—today enjoys a comparatively high degree of economic stability. Inflation is below 2 percent, real GDP has largely recovered from the pandemic, public debt is on course to reach the government’s target of less than 50 percent of GDP before 2030, and per capita income is the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. But this stands in stark contrast to the country’s fortunes twenty years ago when it faced an economic crisis. What’s behind this turnaround?

From times of crisis

In the mid-2000s, Seychelles faced significant macroeconomic challenges stemming from expansionary fiscal policies and a rigid state-led economy. Large fiscal deficits were driven by high public spending on capital projects, subsidies, transfers to state enterprises and high debt service payments, while government revenues were constrained by significant tax concessions to foreign investors in the growing tourism sector. An expansionary monetary policy within a fixed exchange rate framework and extensive exchange controls led to external imbalances and depletion of foreign reserves. By 2008, gross public debt exceeded 192 percent of GDP and reserves had dwindled to just 2 weeks of import cover. The global financial crisis exacerbated these vulnerabilities, and the crisis came to a head in mid-2008 when the Seychelles authorities missed payments on the nation’s private foreign debt and Standard & Poor’s downgraded Seychelles to selective default.

Changing course

In response to this crisis, the government launched a comprehensive reform program with support from the IMF and other development partners. Key actions included abolishing all exchange restrictions and floating the rupee, consolidating public finances, reforming state enterprises, and abolishing indirect product subsidies in favor of a targeted social safety net. Paris Club creditors agreed to a debt stock reduction. These measures quickly yielded positive outcomes: inflation fell, foreign reserves were restored to over 3 months of import cover, and public debt declined to below 70 percent of GDP within five years. This turnaround rebuilt investor confidence, and the restoration of macroeconomic stability allowed policymakers room to shift from crisis management to macro-structural reforms in support of sustainable growth. 

Resilience and commitment tested

The COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a sudden collapse in global tourism, was another tremendous shock. But its years of macroeconomic stability enabled Seychelles to face this new challenge from a position of strength. Confronted with an economic contraction of nearly 12 percent in 2020, the government implemented timely fiscal and monetary measures to support households and businesses, utilized emergency financing from the IMF, and moved quickly to resume tourism. As tourism rebounded in 2021 and 2022, economic growth surged to nearly 13 percent in 2022, helping to regain lost ground. Foreign exchange reserves were maintained above 3 months of import cover, and the exchange rate was allowed to move to facilitate adjustment. Key to managing the effects of the pandemic and the international commodity shock that followed were the fiscal and foreign exchange buffers built up in prior years and a commitment to macro fiscal discipline demonstrated by the government. 

Staying on course

Given highly volatile global economic and financial conditions, Seychelles’ hard-won macroeconomic stability will likely be put to the test again. Environmental pressures limit scope to expand tourism, while vulnerability to external shocks argues for continued strong fiscal discipline and external buffers. To ensure continued economic growth and resilience, vital investments in infrastructure will be necessary, together with deeper development of human capital, more efficient public services, and financial sector deepening and inclusion. Concerted efforts are also needed to strengthen the social safety net and address critical social ills that hamper productivity and economic development. Some of these areas fall within the reform agenda under the current IMF-supported Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility, but others will require new policy commitments.

Seychelles’ economic record highlights the importance of sound macroeconomic management and institutional strengthening in achieving and sustaining economic prosperity. Its journey offers valuable lessons for other small economies aiming at building resilience in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.

Todd Schneider is IMF mission chief to Seychelles and an advisor in the IMF’s African Department, where Hany Abdel-Latif is an economist, Pedro Maciel is a senior economist, and Henry Quach is a research analyst.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/07/01/cf-seychelles-path-to-macroeconomic-stability-and-resilience

MIL OSI

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Комсомольский НПЗ на 20 % увеличил возможности выпуска арктического дизтоплива

Source: Роснефти – Rosneft – Важное заявление об отказе от ответственности находится в нижней части этой статьи.

Комсомольский НПЗ (входит в нефтеперерабатывающий комплекс «Роснефти») провел мероприятия на установке первичной переработки нефти ЭЛОУ-АВТ-3, в результате чего возможности завода по выпуску арктического дизельного топлива экологического класса К5 увеличились на 20 %.

Дизельное топливо с температурой застывания ниже минус 55°С крайне востребовано в регионах Дальнего Востока и Севера России для обеспечения бесперебойной эксплуатации техники в суровых климатических условиях. Первые партии арктического топлива высшего экологического класса, выпущенного по новой технологии, уже направлены на обеспечение северного завоза. Топливо ДТ-А2-К5 успешно прошло комплекс необходимых испытаний, подтвердив соответствие всем требованиям российских и международных стандартов.

Сотрудники Комсомольского НПЗ разработали новую технологическую схему по отбору основных компонентов для приготовления дизельного топлива, что позволило увеличить долю керосиновой фракции с 3% до 6% от сырьевой продукции установки ЭЛОУ-АВТ-3. Кроме того, в новой схеме исключены дополнительные операции по перекачке компонентов в товарно-сырьевом цехе. Экономический эффект от реализации выполненных мероприятий составляет 25 млн рублей ежемесячно.

«Роснефть» уделяет особое внимание повышению операционной эффективности и определяет технологическое лидерство как ключевой фактор конкурентоспособности на нефтяном рынке.

В результате реализованных на Комсомольском НПЗ мероприятий корпоративной программы модернизации нефтеперерабатывающих мощностей позволили предприятию увеличить глубину переработки до 89% и расширить линейку выпускаемых экологичных нефтепродуктов.

Справка:

ООО «РН-Комсомольский НПЗ», дочернее общество НК «Роснефть», является крупнейшим нефтеперерабатывающим предприятием в Хабаровском крае и играет ключевую роль в нефтепродуктообеспечении регионов Дальневосточного федерального округа.

Номенклатура продукции включает более 20 наименований: высокооктановые бензины и дизельное топливо экологического класса К5, судовое топливо RMLS 40 с низким содержанием серы и другие продукты.

Департамент информации и рекламы
ПАО «НК «Роснефть»
1 июля 2025 г.

Обратите внимание; Эта информация является необработанным контентом непосредственно из источника информации. Это точно соответствует тому, что утверждает источник, и не отражает позицию MIL-OSI или ее клиентов.